Page 51 - RusRPTJun20

4.5.3​ Retail sector dynamics
The Russian consumer has been the biggest victim of the pandemic ​as seen in the most recent statistical data that shows large contractions in retail sales, services and residential construction. A pickup in inflation that was accompanied by ruble devaluation and a rise in unemployment has been the prime driver behind falls in real income. BCS GM forecast real disposable income to fall by 4% y/y and retail sales to drop by 5.4% y/y in 2020.
Rosstat reported that retail sales were down a massive 23.4% year-on-year ​in April and unemployment has almost doubled in the month, the state statistics agency said on May 27.
The fall in retail was worse than the 17.7% consensus expectation by analysts. The drop comprised of a 9.3% y/y decline in food retail and a 36.7% y/y collapse in durable goods.
Turnover fell from RUB2.9 trillion ($41.3bn) in March to RUB2,265.8 trillion ($32.1bn) in April and is expected to fall much further in May.
The two key factors limiting consumption in April were: i) precautionary saving, given the backdrop of rising economic uncertainty due to the pandemic; and ii) social distancing and lockdown weighing on households' physical access to goods.
Russia was late to react to the spreading coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic
51​ RUSSIA Country Report​ June 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com