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the deal from nationalist factions and former officials. The constitutional amendments could take years to materialise, raising the risk of political upheaval in Yerevan.
Richard Giragosian, head of the Regional Studies Center in Yerevan, has suggested that constitutional reforms
in Armenia could take until 2026 at the earliest, meaning that a fully ratified peace may still be years away despite the diplomatic breakthrough.
Moreover, while the peace deal may establish diplomatic relations and stabilise parts of the border, it does not eliminate the deep-rooted mistrust between the two nations. Recent border clashes, nationalist rhetoric, and competing territorial claims suggest that while this deal is a major step forward, it is not a guarantee of enduring peace.
Skeptics argue that Azerbaijan’s long- term strategic ambitions, including the pursuit of a land corridor through southern Armenia, could strain the agreement’s implementation. Some observers, such as political analyst Rauf Mirqadirov, have cautioned that without an unconditional recognition of territorial integrity, the deal risks becoming another fragile truce rather than a lasting settlement, Mirqadirov said in an interview with RFE/RL Azerbaijani bureau.
International reactions
Outside the region, French President Emmanuel Macron welcomed the development, declaring that there were no remaining barriers to peace. US Congressman Joe Wilson, a vocal supporter of the opposition in Georgia, hailed the agreement as a step toward regional stability, borrowing rhetoric from US President Donald Trump’s political movement by calling for a “Great South Caucasus”.
However, not all international actors are celebrating. Moscow has yet to issue a formal response, but analysts like Olesya Vartanyan suggest that the agreement’s timing – coinciding with ongoing US-Russia talks over
Ukraine – is unlikely to sit well with the Kremlin. The deal explicitly calls for the removal of “third-party forces” from the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, a likely reference to Russian peacekeepers and security forces.
The broader strategic picture suggests a recalibration of power in the region. "We may call it a Victory Day," said Fuad Chiragov, deputy director of the Baku- based Center for Studies of the South Caucasus.
Azerbaijan, emboldened by military victories in 2020 and 2023, has pursued a more assertive diplomatic posture, leveraging its energy partnerships with Europe to gain influence. Armenia, historically aligned with Moscow, has increasingly looked to the West for security guarantees.
While noting that most of the peace treaty had been agreed upon, Aliyev said that Azerbaijan would not forget the years of occupation and suffering caused by Armenian aggression. His remarks about the genocide in Khojaly, the destruction of mosques, and ethnic cleansing during the First Karabakh War were in stark contrast to the diplomatic tone expected from a leader on the verge of signing a historic peace agreement.
More concerning were his comments about Armenia’s military buildup and European support for Yerevan, suggesting that Azerbaijan sees a renewed military confrontation as inevitable. He accused France of pushing Armenia toward a new war by supplying weapons and insisted that European Union monitors on the
“Skeptics argue that Azerbaijan’s long-term strategic ambitions, including the pursuit of
a land corridor through southern Armenia, could strain the agreement’s implementation”
Azerbaijan’s conflicting signals
Azerbaijani state-affiliated media
and President Ilham Aliyev himself
are giving mixed signals. While the country’s foreign ministry declared that Armenia and Azerbaijan had reached an agreement on a peace treaty, state- controlled outlets are simultaneously pushing narratives that Armenia is preparing for war.
This contradiction raises concerns over whether Baku’s commitment to peace is genuine or if the announcement
is a tactical move to exert further diplomatic pressure on Yerevan.
At the 12th Global Baku Forum, that began under Aliyev’s patronage on March 12, the Azerbaijani president delivered a speech in which he revisited familiar themes of victimhood, historical grievances, and distrust toward Armenia, even as his government was preparing to sign a landmark peace agreement.
Armenia-Azerbaijan border were spies gathering intelligence for a military campaign. These statements are not just rhetorical posturing – they directly contradict the narrative of peace and reconciliation that Azerbaijan’s foreign ministry and Western partners have been promoting.
At the same time, Caliber.az, a media outlet widely considered to be closely linked to Azerbaijan’s security services, has ramped up warnings that Armenia
is preparing for a new war. According
to the outlet, Yerevan has launched unprecedented military preparations, extending reservist training programmes from April 1 to June 13, while secretly coordinating with Western allies for a lightning-fast military offensive aimed at occupying Azerbaijani territory.
The report claims that Armenia is constructing fortified military positions along the border, using underground
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