Page 46 - bne IntelliNews monthly magazine April 2025

46 I Eurasia bne April 2025
tunnels for sabotage operations,
and increasing purchases of French and Indian weaponry for offensive operations. These allegations are not just speculative fear-mongering – they create a pretext for Azerbaijan to justify preemptive military action.
Some argue if Baku truly believed peace was imminent, its state media would not be pushing claims that Armenia is preparing for war. The framing of these reports suggests that Azerbaijan is laying
the groundwork for military escalation while officially advocating for peace. Some analysts suggest such articles make sense in retrospect, however, as Aliyev wants to be able to say domestically that "Armenia was threatening war but Azerbaijan coerced them into making concessions".
While the peace agreement represents a diplomatic victory for both Baku and Yerevan, the reality on the ground remains fluid. The coming months will
determine whether this breakthrough solidifies into a durable settlement or
if entrenched disputes and political resistance derail the process. If the
deal holds, it could mark the South Caucasus’ most significant geopolitical shift in decades, turning Armenia
and Azerbaijan from adversaries into pragmatic partners. If it falters, however, the region could once again descend into instability, proving that while peace may be negotiated on paper, its survival depends on far more than words.
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan sign long-sought deal on border known for armed clashes
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The presidents of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan on March 13 signed a historic border deal to conclusively demarcate their frontier and end disagreements that have plagued bilateral relations for three decades, sometimes resulting in deadly armed clashes.
Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov received Tajik counterpart Emomali Rahmon in Bishkek for the signing of the long- sought agreement. The inking of the deal brought the reopening of road, rail and air links between the two countries. They had been suspended since September 2022, when Kyrgyz and Tajik forces fought a six-day conflict of war-like proportions, leaving hundreds dead and, in Kyrgyzstan, tens of thousands displaced.
Disputes over the 970-kilometre (600- mile) border date from Soviet times, when Moscow delineated frontiers in ethnically mixed parts of Central Asia, somewhat clumsily in the eyes of many historians.
There was both a long handshake and three hugs between the two presidents after Rahmon touched down in Bishkek, where he was greeted by traditional dancers and musicians, as well as a billboard bearing his image and offering a warm welcome to “His Excellency”, RFE/RL reported.
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So far there has been little reported dissent over provisions of the new border arrangement between the two poor, mountainous coutries – Japarov slapped down criticisms of one lawmaker as "pure demagoguery" – but some substantial concessions have been made. For instance, the village of Dostuk has been entirely transferred to Tajikistan from Kyrgyzstan. There are also now pockets of “neutral” land that observers fear could be once again contested in the future.
On the other hand, officials on both sides proudly announced a devised framework for sharing water from
the Golovnoi intake facility. It draws water from a river known as Ak-Suu by Kyrgyzstan and Isfara by Tajikistan.
Tajik daily Asia-Plus reported on how
Japarov and Rahmon participated together in the online reopening of two border checkpoints on the frontier.
It also quoted Saimumin Yatimov, head of Tajikistan’s State Committee for National Security (SCNS), as telling Kyrgyz media that the border issue was resolved exclusively in the interests of both peoples.
“There is criticism of this decision on both sides, including in Tajikistan. But what matters most is that the interests of both states have been upheld. Our relations will now be brotherly and historical – just like real family ties. The issue of opening all checkpoints has been decided in principle. Two are opening today, and the rest will follow,” he said.
Rahmon, left, came to Bishkek, where he stepped off the plane to a greeting given by traditional dancers and musicians, for the signing with Japarov. / Kyrgyz presidency