Page 23 - UKRRptSept22

3.0 Macro Economy
3.1 Macroeconomic overview
Ukraine has presented a 10-year plan for a three-fold economic jump. The Ministry of Economy presented a 10-step plan to international experts that Ukraine needs to triple its economy. The plan envisages the transition from a transitional economy of $4,000 per capita GDP per year to a developing economy with $12,000 per capita GDP per year. In practice, this will mean the creation of a Ukrainian economic miracle – 7% GDP annual growth over a long period of time, the Ministry of Economy said in a statement. One of the key steps that will ensure reform implementation will be economic liberalisation and creating a free regulatory environment. “Even in war conditions, the government has started massive deregulation and implementing reforms," said Minister of Economy Yuliya Svyridenko
The government has given an optimistic forecast for Ukraine’s economy.
According to an optimistic scenario, after falling by 30-35% in 2022, Ukraine's economy may stabilise and grow by 15.5% next year. As Economic Minister Yulia Svyridenko stated in an interview with Reuters, the economic situation will depend on the development of battlefield events. She also added that the pessimistic scenario predicts a fall in Ukraine's 2023 GDP by another 0.4%. According to the minister, the state government is preparing a macroeconomic forecast before the start of negotiations with the International Monetary Fund regarding a new lending program planned to be discussed in September. She said the new program would need to be relatively large-scale and agreed upon quickly to help free up funds from other lenders and reassure investors.
The global economy will lose $1T due to the war in Ukraine. This year, the world’s economy will lose $1T because of the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine, reported The Economist. According to the latest forecast, the hostilities in Ukraine will continue at least until the end of the year. Because of this, global economic growth expectations have deteriorated by 1.1% to 2.8% in annual terms. Thus, the war reduced this year's global GDP forecast by $1 trillion. It is noted that other organisations are also predicting a similar decline.
23 UKRAINE Country Report September 2022 www.intellinews.com