Page 24 - UKRRptSept22

The IMF cut its global growth forecast for the year by 1.2% from its initial estimate in January to 3.2%. Among the G20 countries, Russia will suffer the most. By the end of 2022, the impact of sanctions will cause the Russian economy to sink by 10% compared to the initial growth estimate of 2.6%. The Ukrainian economy will suffer an even greater blow. In April, the World Bank estimated that it will decrease by 45% this year.
Fitch Ratings has given its price dynamics forecast for Ukraine. Fitch Ratings predicts that inflation in Ukraine will accelerate from 22.2% in July to 30% by the end of 2022. The inflationary increase will remain high in 2023, at an average level of 20%. It is noted that high inflation will be caused by monetary financing of the budget deficit by the NBU, disruptions in the supply chain, the weak influence of monetary policy, and hryvnia devaluation. Fitch predicts that Ukraine's economy will shrink by 33% this year and will show a 4% recovery next year. Analysts have noted that net migration abroad has increased to 6.1 million people, infrastructure damage exceeds $100B (75% of GDP), and the government predicts the need for a 10-year reconstruction that will require $750B.
24 UKRAINE Country Report September 2022 www.intellinews.com