Page 38 - bneMagazine March 2023 oil discount

38 I Special focus I One Year On bne March 2023
Of the six really big crises Russia has endured since the collapse of the Soviet Union, this crisis has had the least effect on the economy. / bne IntelliNews
Sanctions had a very limited effect on Russia's economy in 2022
Ben Aris in Berlin
RosStat reported an even milder
contraction in Russia's GDP in
2022 than the most optimistic forecasts from all the economists that follow Russia on February 20. In the six big crises Russia has suffered since the collapse of the Soviet Union, this crisis has been the least damaging.
Russia’s economy shrank by only 2.1% year on year, well below the 2.5%-
3.5% contraction many professional economists were predicting. For example, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) was expecting a 2% contraction and the EBRD just improved its economic forecast for the year-end result for 2022 to a still painful -3.5% only a week ago, but left its outlook for this year at 3%. The EBRD’s previous prediction for 2022, given in September 2022, anticipated a 5% drop
in Russian economic growth in 2022.
Economists in general have been left
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scrambling to work out what happened to the Russian economy in 2022, as
it was battered by multiple major shocks. It is now emerging that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Fiscal Fortress has proved to be even more
Russia GDP y/y%
robust than even the most optimistic forecasters expected.
The result also suggests that the contraction this year will also be even milder than anticipated, despite the