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that the economy should grow faster than the global average rate in his fourth presidential term to overtake Germany as the fifth largest economy in purchasing parity terms (the IMF expects the world economy to grow by 3.8% annually in 2018-23). Even the Ministry of Economic Development, which shares responsibility for implementing some of the growth-related decrees, does not have particularly high expectations for a pick-up in the economy.
3.2 Macro outlook
Does it matter if the Russian economy grows at just 1-2% a year in the medium term? In a paper published in the midst of the crisis in 2016, the economist Philip Hanson argued that a similar economic outlook would not lead to a conflict between guns and butter – it would be compatible with further growth in military spending without additional cuts in consumption. The forecasters appear confident that macroeconomic stability will be retained – the consensus has inflation at close to target in every year to 2024. Moreover, with oil averaging around $60/barrel, the National Wealth Fund will quickly reach the Ministry of Finance’s 7% of GDP goal. At that point, there may be more funds available to throw at a range of infrastructure projects.
RUSSIA Country Report July 2018 www.intellinews.com