Page 42 - RusRPTFeb19

level of 1.7-1.8%, while the government predicts that GDP growth may reach 3% in 2021 due to the investment programme," the ratings agency said in a report entitled "How the Russian investment program can affect the economic growth and creditworthiness of companies" released on November 13.
4.0 Real Economy
Russia - Main Macro 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Mar-2018 Indicators
Annual GDP (y/y, %)
3.41 1.34 0.64 -3.7 -0.5 1.5 1.5
GDP (per capita) (USD)
14,079 15,531 13,873 9,055 8,759 10,743 /
GDP: Private consumption expenditure (USD mn)
1,116,950 1,214,990 1,111,244 720,256 680,455 826,389 207,035
GDP: Public consumption expenditure (USD mn)
391,097 425,831 375,081 244,282 236,063 283,696 79,723
GDP: Gross fixed capital formation (USD mn)
471,337
496,982
428,573
276,240
280,350
342,294
58,303
GDP: Exports (USD mn)
524,697
527,266
497,834
343,543
285,772
357,816
102,956
GDP: Imports (USD mn)
Source: CEIC
4.1 Industrial production
317,177
314,967
286,669
182,719
182,347
227,502
54,820
Russia's industrial output moderated in November to 2.4% year-on-year growth from 3.7% y/y seen in October, Rosstat reported on December 18.
Previously in October and September Russian industry was demonstrating solid numbers, but the October's boost was also supported by low base effect.
The slowdown in November could be attributed to calendar factors too, but the fact that seasonally and adjusted output declined by 0.4% month-on-month versus steady expansion in July-October shows that reasons other than the working day effect were at play too, VTB Capital commented on December 18.
Extraction continued to accelerate in November with mining and quarrying speeding up to 7.8% y/y, from 7.4% y/y in October.
"While the acceleration that started in June was initially driven by oil extraction, since October products other than oil have been supporting the sector’s performance," VTB notes, in particular pointing to acceleration of coal and natural gas to 8.2% y/y and 3.3% y/y growth, respectively.
Since September’s agreement between Russia and Saudi Arabia, oil extraction has remained stable at 4-4.5% y/y growth and the bank believes that the oil output will keep the same pace until the end of 2018, moderating in the 1Q19
42 RUSSIA Country Report February 2019 www.intellinews.com