Page 41 - RusRPTFeb19

Putin expects that the national government can support the economic growth rate above 3% after 2021. "The government intends to support GDP growth by 3% from 2021 and higher later on. Therefore, I expect that we will be to do that. Certainly, some fluctuations are possible. Most importantly, we should join a different economic league, and not merely in terms of volumes. Taking the fifth place by volumes is well within reach for us," the president said at his annual news conference.
Russia needs national projects for a breakthrough to a new technological paradigm. In total RUB20.8 trillion rubles ($308.2bn) are allocated for 12 national projects and $96.5bn are earmarked for development of the infrastructure, says Putin. (See article in Section 2.)
The World Bank has inched up the outlook for Russia's GDP growth in 2018 to 1.6% from previous 1.5%, according to Russia Economic Report published on December 4.
"Overall growth for 2018 is expected a notch above 2017, at 1.6%. Consumption would support growth driven by higher demand for durable goods ahead of VAT rate increase," the latest World Bank report said.
The WB sees high international reserves, small international debt (about 29% of GDP) and recently established principles of macroeconomic regulation as key factors helping Russia to limit the impact of external volatility.
"Oil prices are expected to average $71/bbl over the next three years, although there is considerable uncertainty to the forecast. Demand is expected to remain robust, with the International Energy Agency forecasting an increase of 1.4 mb/d [mn barrels daily], although their forecast has been revised down relative to earlier estimates as a result of weaker global growth and higher prices," the World Bank report said.
In October the IMF maintained the 2018 GDP forecast at 1.7%. At the same time Russia's medium-term growth is still expected to remain muted at about 1.2%, absent structural reforms.
Prior to that in September the Ministry of Economic Development worsened Russia's short-term economic outlook as expected due to volatility on emerging markets, worsened sanction risks, faster capital outflow and rising cost of debt.
The international rating agency S&P Global Ratings expects the growth of the Russian economy in 2018–2021 will be no more than 1.7–1.8%, unless deep structural reforms are undertaken.
"We predict a relatively modest growth in Russia's GDP in 2018–2021 — at the
41 RUSSIA Country Report February 2019 www.intellinews.com