Page 50 - RusRPTFeb19

Apart from the investment data Rosstat published statistics for Russian basic sectors output. October saw quite strong growth of 3.5% y/y, up from just 0.7% y/y in September.
"Growth in basic sectors was supported by stronger dynamics in industrial production (up 3.7% y/y compared with 2.1% y/y in September), agriculture (up 11.9% y/y versus a 6.0% y/y decline in September) and construction (growth accelerated to 2.9% y/y from 0.1% a month earlier)," Sberbank CIB summed up on December 4.
"We attribute the improvement in October largely to the low base of last year (basic sectors output was up 1.3% y/y last October and 0.5% y/y in 4Q17) and expect growth to remain quite strong in November-December," Sberbank commented.
The bank expects GDP growth to rebound to above 2.0% y/y in 4Q18 (GDP grew just 0.9% in 4Q17) and come in at around 1.8% for the full year. This week the World Bank has increased the outlook for Russia's GDP growth in 2018 to 1.6% from previous 1.5%. "Overall growth for 2018 is expected a notch above 2017, at 1.6%. Consumption would support growth driven by higher demand for durable goods ahead of VAT rate increase," the latest World Bank report said.
50 RUSSIA Country Report February 2019 www.intellinews.com