Page 17 - Russia OUTLOOK 2022

The CBR carried out a macroeconomic survey in December. The consensus forecast for 2021 inflation was raised from 7.0% in October to 8.2% in December, and from 4.2% to 4.8% in 2022, respectively. In 2023-2024, analysts expect inflation to stabilise at the Bank of Russia’s target.
Nabiullina reported the rate of price increases for food reached double digits in the last quarter of 2021, and the most vulnerable will suffer first from inflation, the governor said in a speech at the State Duma in the middle of November.
Everyday Russians are feeling its effects; a survey by the Higher School of Economics found that 69% of Russians say they are “experiencing financial difficulties.”
In her speech, Nabiullina also confirmed the CBR’s forecast of 7.4-7.9% inflation by the end of 2021. The CBR hiked rates by 100bp in December to bring the prime rate to 8.5% for the whole year.
However, as the CBR started hiking rates early in 2021 inflation is thought to have peaked and will start falling again in 2022 back towards the CBR’s target rate of 4%.
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