Page 15 - Russia OUTLOOK 2022

Russian GDP growth in 2021 forecasts
Alfa Bank
2.5%
Sova Capital
2.8%
Economic Development Ministry
2.7%-3.3%
CBR
3%-4%
World Bank
2.7%
IMF
3%-3.5%
EBRD
4%
are focusing on demographic issues, investments, labour productivity, economic diversification tied to modern digitalization trends, as well as the healthcare sector, and stable macroeconomic situation.
Russia’s economy returned to growth in March of 2021 and grew strongly in the summer, partly on low base effects, but growth was starting to slow in the last quarter as the bounce back effects wore off.
Russia’s economic growth will moderate to 2.6% in 2022 and analysts expect domestic consumption to soften in 2022 with retail trade slowing to 3.3% in 2022 vs 7.1% projected in 2021.
Inflation remains a drag on growth as does the multiple rate hikes during 2021 as the CBR tried to bring prices under control. WIth a 100bp hike in December analysts think that the tightening cycle has now ended and the CBR may go back to cutting rates in 2H22.
More waves of the pandemic also pose serious risks to growth in 2022. At the beginning of November 2021, only 33% of the population in Russia was vaccinated and is not growing as the population remains very reluctant to get the jab.
15 RUSSIA Russia OUTLOOK 2022 www.intellinews.com