Page 12 - 2025 Housing Forecast

National Economic Update
Housing and Economic Outlook The Post-Election Greater San Antonio Builders Association January 8, 2025
Election Impacts on the Outlook
• Good
•
•
•
Extension of most or all of the 2017 tax cuts Increased macroeconomic growth environment Reduction of costly/inefficient regulatory policies
• Bad
• Inflationary impacts
• Larger government deficit
• Narrow and general tariffs
•
Uncertain risks (need more policy detail)
• Illegal immigration enforcement
Job Openings Trending Lower Fell to 7.44 million in September
Robert Dietz, Ph.D. NAHB Chief Economist
Slowing Growth Ahead Soft landing for the cycle?
15% Q/Q Percent Change, SAAR
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
Increased 35.2% during the third quarter of 2020
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
Percent, SA
Percent, SA
20% 18% 16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2023 2.9% 2025f 1.9% 2022 2.5% 2026f 2.0% 2021 6.1%
LT avg (‘58-’07)
2024f 2.7% Annual Growth 3.4%
second quarter of 2020 Dropped 28.1% during the
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
ending with March `24
Benchmark BLS revisions subtracted 818k job growth for year Consistent with rise in U rate to above 4%
More business failures under revision
Job Openings Rate
Unemployment Rate
-15%
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and NAHB forecast.
Payroll Employment
Mountain states leading job gains, 47 states reached or exceeded the pre-pandemic peak
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15 16
17 18 19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
2%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and NAHB forecast.
120%
115%
110%
105%
100%
95%
90%
85%
80%
10.0%
5.0%
12-month percentage change, NSA
0.0%
CPI
Shelter 1 June 2022, 9.1% 1 4.9% 1
1
1
2.6% 1
0
0
0
0
-
Consumer Inflation – Headline Rate and Shelter
Shelter costs continue to outpace broader consumer prices – only more housing can fix
12
2025 HOUSING FORECAST
DITUTMXTLFVNCSZACNAGOCLARANTDSKOOMYKEDAWNIENJNAVHNKAMNEMSMSKACAPDNIWYWNMHOROIRAIIMVWTCYNLITVAMDMALIHCD
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
-5.0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
U.S. -- 104% of February 2020 Peak
100%