Page 22 - 2025 Housing Forecast

Typical New Home Size
Size trending lower but should level off in the coming quarters
2600 2500 2400 2300 2200 2100 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600
Square Feet
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Source: U.S. Census Bureau (BOC)
SF Starts: Median Floor Area SF Starts: Median 1 Year MA
Economies of Scale in Single-Family Home Construction
The cost per square foot of a SF home declines systematically as the home becomes larger
$200
$177
$163
1,600 to 1,999
Square Feet of Finished Floor Area
Median Sale Price per Square Foot (excluding lot value) Single-family Detached Homes Built for Sale and Started in 2023
$154
$151
2,500 to 4,999
$132
5,000 or More
Under 1,200
1,200 to 1,599
2,000 to 2,499
Source: NAHB tabulation of data on new homes started, from the Survey of Construction, U.S. Census Bureau and HUD.
Rising Population Entering Housing Demand Years: 2024 Solid demand for housing during the second half of the decade
5.0 Millions 4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
Greatest Generation:
Born Before 1928
Avg=4.3
Gen Alpha: Born 2013 and after
A
Gen Z: M Born 1997-2012
v
bout 44%
of young adults ages 25 to 34 were households heads in 2022.
illennials: Born 1981-1996
Gen X:
Born 1965-1980
Baby Boomers: Born 1946-1964
Silent Generation: Born 1928-1945
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100+
Source: U.S. Census Bureau (BOC).
Thank you
Questions?
rdietz@nahb.org
@dietz_econ
eyeonhousing.org housingeconomics.com
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National
Economic Update
22 2025 HOUSING FORECAST