Page 31 - 2025 Housing Forecast
P. 31
San Antonio
2025 Housing Forecast
Bryan Glasshagel
San Antonio Housing Demand
17,992 17,441
New Home Closings Continue to Outpace Starts
25,000 23,000 21,000 19,000 17,000 15,000 13,000 11,000 9,000 7,000 5,000
Source: Zonda
Starts Closings 551
YOY QOQ
vs. 3Q19 33% 2%
33% -4% 5%
47% More Closings Than Starts (4Q23-3Q24)
41Q41Q41Q41Q51Q51Q51Q51Q61Q61Q61Q61Q71Q71Q71Q71Q81Q81Q81Q81Q91Q91Q91Q91Q02Q02Q02Q02Q12Q12Q12Q12Q2Q2Q2Q2Q32Q32Q32Q32Q42Q42Q42Q 1234123412341234123412341234123412341234123
AnnStarts
AnnClosings
Look Who is Bigger Now – San Antonio vs. Austin Starts
New Home Market Captured 33% of Total Closings in 2024
30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000
Source: Zonda
© 2022 Zonda
YOY QOQ
vs. 3Q19 33% 2%
33% 15% -4%
-2%
90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000
33% 35% 31%
San Antonio Austin
30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
41Q41Q41Q41Q51Q51Q51Q51Q61Q61Q61Q61Q71Q71Q71Q71Q81Q81Q81Q81Q91Q91Q91Q91Q02Q02Q02Q02Q12Q12Q12Q12Q2Q2Q2Q2Q32Q32Q32Q32Q42Q42Q42Q 1234123412341234123412341234123412341234123
San Antonio Starts
Austin Starts
0
2014
2015
2016
2017 2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024 YTD
New Closings Existing Closings
New Capture Rate
Source: Zonda
Project Sales Rates in San Antonio Remain Above National Numbers
National
San Antonio Market
17,441
17,001
22%
22%
19%
19%
19%
19% 19%
24%
24%
Monthly New Home Contract Sales Peaked in March
2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000
800 600 400 200
0
91/ 91/ 91/ 91/ 91/ 91/ 02/ 02/ 02/ 02/ 02/ 02/ 12/ 12/ 12/ 12/ 12/ 12/ 2/ 2/ 2/ 2/ 2/ 2/ 32/ 32/ 32/ 32/ 32/ 32/ 42/ 42/ 42/ 42/ 42/
10305070901103050709011030507090110 305070901103050709011030507090
5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5
National: 2.5 (+1% MOM, -1% YOY)
31
2025 HOUSING FORECAST
Source: Zonda
© 2022 Zonda
Source: Zonda
© 2022 Zonda
Copyright Zonda 2025
New Home Contract Sales
2019 (Average)
0.0
Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May 2018 2019 2020 2021
2022 2023 2024
t
c
San Antonio Market: 2.7 (+2% MOM, -11% YOY)
2.7 2.5
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