Page 32 - 2025 Housing Forecast

San Antonio
2025 Housing Forecast
Start Activity is Up Most Significantly for Under $300,000 Price Points
Bryan Glasshagel
Strongest Sales Rates For Under $300,000 Segments (Elastic Market)
Source: Zonda
© 2022 Zonda
7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000
30% of Starts
26.2%
8.4%
$250-$299
$300-$349
$350-$399 2022Q3
2023Q3
13% of Starts
160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40%
$1mm+ $750k-$999k $500k-$749k $400k-$499k $300k-$399k $250k-$299k $200k-$249k Under $200k
Source: Zonda
© 2022 Zonda
1.0
0.6
1.1
1.0
139.6%
stratS gnisuo
Hlaun A
%
Cha
nge
2.0
1.5 2.0
2.5 Average Monthly Sales Rate
3.2
3.1
0
$1-$249
$750 Over
0%
0.0
0.5
3.0
3.5
5.0
44% of Starts
14% of Starts
20.8% 21.7% $400-$449 $450-$499
2024Q3
YOY % Change
L12M Detached Average Sales Per Project Per Month
41.6%
4.1
4.7
4.0 4.5
1.1% $500-$749
12.3% 20%
40’ and 50’ Wide Lots Dominate – But Don’t Ignore the “Barbell Ends”
Annual New Home Starts
stratS gnisuo
Hlaun A
70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0%
58% of
21% of Starts
Starts
40' - 49'
50' - 59'
60' - 69'
70' - 79'
80' - 89'
90' - 99'
> 100'
Starts VDL
Future
Rank Market Area
1 West
Annual Starts % of Total
3,192 18.3%
4,659 26.7%
1,369 41.6% YOY YOY % 4 South
3 East
2 New Braunfels
1,836 10.5%
1,990 11.4%
527 40.3% 832 71.8% 973 43.8% 6 Southwest
5 Northeast
1,447 8.3%
7 Bulverde - Comal
1,299 7.4%
201 18.3% 83 6.1% 8 Far North
731 4.2%
766 4.4%
(71) (8.5%) 10 Far Northwest
9 Boerne - Kendall
616 3.5%
228
24
58.8% 3.4% 11 North
432 2.5%
12 Central
200 1.1%
43
29
11.1% 176 1.0%
77
17.0% 13 UTSA-Medical
17,441 100.0%
97 0.6%
53
120.5% 77.8% Grand Total
4,368
33.4%
Source: Zonda
© 2022 Zonda
Source: Zonda; eSpatial
© 2022 Zonda
Most Active Subdivisions
< 40'
Most Cities Are Showing YOY Start Growth – “Emerging East”
Rank Postal City
Annual Starts % of Total YOY
YOY % 1 San Antonio
9,294
53.3% 2,236
31.7% 2 New Braunfels
2,211
12.7% 817
58.6% 3 Seguin 1,149
6.6% 188
19.6% 4 Boerne 876
5.0% 232
36.0% 5 Converse
771
4.4% (219)
(22.1%) 6 Bulverde
500 2.9% (33)
(6.2%) 7 Cibolo
446 2.6% 98
28.2% 8 Von Ormy
389 2.2% 198
103.7% 9 Saint Hedwig
375 2.2% 207
123.2% 10 Castroville
323 1.9% 171
112.5% 11 Elmendorf
279 1.6% 171
158.3% 12 Marion
225 1.3% 185
462.5% 13 Adkins
154 0.9% 152 7600.0% 14 Spring Branch
99 0.6% (63)
(38.9%) 15 Lytle
88 0.5% 37
72.5% 16 Schertz
72 0.4% (38)
(34.5%) 17 Pleasanton
49 0.3% 5
11.4% 18 Jourdanton
42 0.2% 42
- 19 Canyon Lake
28 0.2% (14)
(33.3%) 20 Universal City
18 0.1% (5)
(21.7%) 21 Helotes
14 0.1% (2)
(12.5%) 22 Bergheim
13 0.1% 0
0.0% 23 Atascosa
12 0.1% 8 200.0% 24 Mico
10 0.1% 1 11.1% 25 Blanco
4 0.0% (6) (60.0%) Totals:
17,441 100.0% 4,368 33.4%
Source: Zonda
COPYRIGHT 2022
Rank Community / Subdivision
1 Riverstone at Westpointe
Postal City
San Antonio
Base Price (Avg.)
Starts Closings 3 Mission Del Lago
2 Ladera
San Antonio
$452,405
$341,000
515 499 4 Redbird Ranch
San Antonio
411 309 5 Crescent Hills
San Antonio
San Antonio
$292,000
$244,497
318 290 339 407 7 Davis Ranch
6 Navarro Ranch
Seguin
$269,499
$231,999
302 335 302 333 310 272 9 Langdon
8 Veramendi
San Antonio
New Braunfels
San Antonio
$518,755
$442,615
10 Steelwood Trails
New Braunfels
$375,500
$262,299
220 156 240 204 % of San Antonio MSA:
Totals/Averages:
$343,057
3,161 2,970 204 165 18% 17%
32
2025 HOUSING FORECAST
Source: Zonda; eSpatial
© 2022 Zonda
Copyright Zonda 2025