Page 34 - 2025 Housing Forecast

San Antonio
2025 Housing Forecast
Path to 300+ New Home Starts – Two Approaches
Bryan Glasshagel
Product Diversity #2
Lifestyle at Attainable Price Points #6
Ladera
“Segment, Segment, Segment”
• 2023 Starts: 411
• Base Prices: $316,000 to $699,000
• Lot Sizes: 30/35/40/45/50/60/65
• Builders: 5 Builders (10 Programs) Navarro Ranch
“Location and Price”
• 2023 Starts: 302
• Base Prices: $185,000 to $374,000
• Lot Sizes: 35/40/45/50
• Builders: Lennar (7 collections)
ANNUAL
SHARE OF
HOUSING
ANNUAL
YOY
FINISHED
FINISHED
HOUSING
SHARE OF
VACANT
DEVELOPED VDL VACANT
# BUILDER
1 Lennar
STARTS
STARTS
GROWTH CLOSINGS CLOSINGS INVENTORY
STARTS
ANNUAL
ANNUAL
VACANT
MONTHS OF
4,378 25.1% 44.2% 4,586 25.5% 159 0.4 3,821 10.5 SUPPLY
INVENTORY OF SUPPLY LOT
MONTHS
2 DRHorton
1,272 7.3% 2,609 15.0%
4 The Pulte Group
3 KB Home
1,021 5.9%
47.1% 1,389
14.4% 2,823 15.7% 624
7.7% 117
2.7 3,338 15.4
5 Perry Homes
878 5.0%
50.8% 1,044
5.8% 125
1.4 828 9.7 1.0 1,286 12.1
6 Ashton Woods / Starlight by Ashton Woods
7 Meritage Homes
825 4.7%
12.1% 793
3.8% 808
4.5% 228
754 4.3%
76.2% 683
4.4% 143
3.4 869 11.9 2.2 1,532 22.3
8 Rausch Coleman Homes
670 3.8%
29.6% 654
3.8% 184
3.6% 72
3.2 1,479 23.5
10 Highland Homes
9 Century Communities
459 2.6%
50.5% 417
2.3% 81
1.3 1,187 21.3
11 M/I Homes
418 2.4%
12 Legend Homes
386 2.2%
30.2% 409
2.3% 70
2.3 616 16.1 304 1.7%
128.6% 152
22.9% 355
2.0% 86
2.1 400 11.5 2.9 835 26.0
14 CastleRock Communities
13 Chesmar Homes
295 1.7%
-2.6% 337
1.9% 65
0.8% 143
11.3 547 21.6 2.3 495 20.1
15 Coventry Homes - Dream Finders Homes
269 1.5%
295 1.7%
115.2% 156
109.2% 224
1.2% 69
16 Brightland Homes / Gehan / Gray Point
182 1.0%
-7.1% 227
1.3% 50
0.9% 64
4.9 248 11.1 3.7 1,116 45.4
17 David Weekley Homes
18 Toll Brothers
181 1.0%
166 1.0%
112.8% 95
33.1% 190
1.1% 22
2.6 396 26.1
19 LGI Homes
0.5% 29
3.7 181 13.1 1.4 173 11.5
20 View Homes - Armadillo Homes
154 0.9%
-60.6% 226
21 Monticello Homes
137 0.8%
3.0% 142
0.8% 40
1.3% 108
3.4 334 29.3 5.7 1,055 82.2
22 Beazer Homes
136 0.8%
131 0.8%
43.2% 104
57.8% 96
0.6% 21
2.4 105 9.3
23 National Home Corp
124 0.7%
0.5% 61
7.6 460 42.1
24 Scott Felder Homes
25 First America Homes
103 0.6%
71.7% 89
- 49
0.3% 38
0.3% 14
0.5% 70
9.4 336 39.1 9.3 50 4.8 97 0.6%
148.7% 59
2.8 313 38.7
Source: Zonda Top 25 Builders: 90% of Total Starts © 2022 Zonda
Top Builders by Annual Housing Starts
Detached New Home Base Prices Are 36% Above January 2021 Levels
$430,000
25.0%
$413,094
30.0% $410,000
$395,540
25.0%
) $390,000
20.0%
M3 T()Y $370,000
15.0%
ecir OY( $291,657
$350,000
10.0%
aa Pes egn Beg hC $330,000
0.8%
5.0%
ar % evA $310,000
0.0% $290,000
-5.0% $270,000
-10.0% -10.0%
$250,000
-15.0%
Base Prices Are Up Slightly, But Incentives Remain Costly
Price Trend
Increase
Flat
Decrease
Overall Average Change Floorplans:
Last Month
19%
66% 15% -0.2% 1,900
Last 3 Months
Last 6 Months
Last 12 Months
59% 9% 32% 1.0% 1,121
27% 48% 25% -0.4% 1,886
45% 22% 33% -0.2% 1,575
Source: Zonda
© 2022 Zonda
Average Price (T3M)
% Change (YOY)
Base Prices
+ Mortgage Rate Buydowns ↑ + Borrowing Costs ↓ + Sticky Land Prices ↑ Margin Compression – Especially on New Land Deals
Source: Zonda
© 2022 Zonda
MLS Closing Prices Are Down 6% From Peak Levels
34
2025 HOUSING FORECAST
San Antonio Remains the Affordable Central Texas Option
$700,000
60.0%
$350,000 18.6% 20.0% Average New Home Base Price
41.5%
$307,579
$600,000
Austin: $559,743
50.0%
$325,000
San Antonio: $395,540
)
15.0% $500,000
M
$300,000
40.0%
r OY
T(eci)Y
$400,000
$275,000
10.0% 30.0%
Pgn (eg
isolnah
$229,859
$300,000
CC
$250,000
5.0% naid %
$200,000
20.0%
M
e
$225,000
-1.4% 0.0% $100,000
10.0%
$200,000 -3.6%
$0
0.0%
$175,000
-5.0%
02-02-02-02-02-02-12-12-12-12-12-12-2-2-2-2-2-2-32-32-32-32-32-32-42-42-42-42-42-42-
naJrayaluJpeSvoNnaJrayaluJpeSvoNnaJrayaluJpeSvoNnaJrayaluJpeSvoNnaJrayaluJpeSvoN
MMMMMMMMMM
San Antonio Avg. Price (T3M)
Austin Avg. Price (T3M)
Price Difference
Median Price (T6M)
% Change (YOY)
Source: Zonda
Source: ABOR MLS
© 2022 Zonda
Copyright Zonda 2025