Page 37 - 2025 Housing Forecast

San Antonio
2025 Housing Forecast
Bryan Glasshagel
VDL Months of Supply is Not a Concern in Most Market Areas
10,000
30.0 9,000
26.1
8,000 22.7
24.9
25.0 7,000
22.3
22.9
19.7
21.3
19.6
20.0 6,000
16.7
. VLD LD M 5,000
16.2
so 14.4
15.0 4,000
12.3
3,000
10.8
V 10.0 2,000
5.0 1,000
0
0.0
Vacant Developed Lot Supply is Balanced in San Antonio
35,000
VDL 30,000 VDL Mos.
25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000
YOY -4% -27%
QOQ
vs. 3Q19 -2%
63% -5%
23%
30,743 35.0 21.2
Source: Zonda
© 2022 Zonda
COPYRIGHT 2020 Source: Zonda
0
1Q1 2Q1 3Q1 4Q1 1Q1 2Q1 3Q1 4Q1 1Q2 2Q2 3Q2 4Q2 1Q2 2Q2 3Q2 4Q2 1Q2 2Q2 3Q2 4Q2 1Q2 2Q2 3Q2 4Q2 1Q2 2Q2 3Q2
888899990000111122223333444
30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0
VDLInv (VDL)
AnnStarts
VDLMos
Equilibrium
Equilibrium
VDL
VDL Months of Supply
Equilibrium
Equilibrium
Vacant Developed Lots
Lot Deliveries Are Slowing & Lagging Start Activity
8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000
YOY
QOQ vs. 3Q19 Quarterly Deliveries -16%
-31% -20% Annual Deliveries -14%
-4% 17% Annual Starts vs. Lot Deliveries:
1,119
7,548
5,586
Source: Zonda; eSpatial
Source: Zonda
© 2022 Zonda
Rank Market Area
VDL % of Total
YOY YOY%
4,559 2,848
5,096
4,385
3,667
1 West
8,797 28.6%
(67) (0.8%)
2 New Braunfels
5,250 17.1%
(223) (4.1%)
3 East
4,323 14.1%
397 10.1%
4 South
3,409 11.1%
17 0.5%
5 Northeast
3,001 9.8%
(157) (5.0%)
6 Southwest
1,558 5.1%
(597) (27.7%)
7 Boerne - Kendall
1,175 3.8%
176 17.6%
8 Bulverde - Comal
1,065 3.5%
(215) (16.8%)
9 Far Northwest
768 2.5%
(256) (25.0%)
10 Far North
752 2.4%
(4) (0.5%)
11 Central 288 0.9%
(38) (11.7%)
12 North 270 0.9%
(158) (36.9%)
13 UTSA-Medical 87 0.3%
6 7.4%
Grand Total
30,743 100.0%
(1,119) (3.5%)
0
1Q1 2Q1 3Q1 4Q1 1Q1 2Q1 3Q1 4Q1 1Q2 2Q2 3Q2 4Q2 1Q2 2Q2 3Q2 4Q2 1Q2 2Q2 3Q2 4Q2 1Q2 2Q2 3Q2 4Q2 1Q2 2Q2 3Q2
888899990000111122223333444
QtrStarts
QtrDeliv
Poly. (QtrDeliv)
Undeveloped Future Lot Supply
Lots Under Development Are at Reasonable Levels
oL
4,456
Streets
10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000
0
8,199
Equipment
9,405
Excavation Stage of Development
Key Trend
15,500 lots nearing completion with 8,600 additional lots with equipment or stakes on site (6,600 lot surplus vs. starts).
st
37
2025 HOUSING FORECAST
Source: Zonda
Source: Zonda; eSpatial
© 2022 Zonda
Copyright Zonda 2025
Grand Total
142,780 100.0%
364 Stakes
1,626
Paving
RankMarketArea
UndevelopedFutureLots %ofTotal
1 West
35,305 24.7%
2 East
22,120 15.5%
3 New Braunfels
19,833 13.9%
4 South
19,607 13.7%
5 Northeast
10,130 7.1%
6 Southwest
8,284 5.8%
7 Bulverde - Comal
8,167 5.7%
8 Boerne - Kendall
7,921 5.5%
9 Far Northwest
5,811 4.1%
10 Far North
5,123 3.6%
11 Central 369 0.3%
12 UTSA-Medical 69 0.0%
13 North 41 0.0%