Page 38 - 2025 Housing Forecast

Secondary Texas Markets
Corpus Christi MSA (1,963 SF Permits in 2023)
Rank Builder Closings Average Closing $
1 D.R. Horton 470 $307,853 2 Lennar 164 $264,070
3 Hogan Homes
4 Ricks Homes
5 Azali Homes
6 Live Oak Construction 7 Fox Homebuilders
8 Mostaghasi Enterprises 9 Hideway Custom Homes
10 Fortis Homes
Top 10 Totals/Averages:
NewHomeClosings AverageClosing$ ExistingHomeClosings AverageClosing$
881 $325,073 5,175 $238,500
Note: Closings are from the last 12 months
80 $391,284 51 $386,446 31 $475,025 22 $507,127 21 $369,925 21 $420,453 17 $633,314 16 $1,175,090
893 $493,059
Source: Zonda
Final Thoughts & Forecast
Source: Zonda
Supply & Demand
30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000
- - - VDL Months of Supply : 20 to 24 Months (Equilibrium)
- - - Annual Demand: 17,170 New Homes Per Year (Through 2054)
40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0
VDL Mos. Equilibrium
0
AnnStarts
AnnDeliv
Annual Demand
VDLMos
VDL Mos. Equilibrium
1Q10
3Q10
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3Q12
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1Q15
3Q15
1Q16
3Q16
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1Q20
3Q20
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3Q24
Starts / Deliveries
VDL Mos.
Top two buyers
#1 Millennials
Largest living generation, 50% homeownership rate
#2 Baby Boomers
Holds the most assets and wealth
Baby chaser markets: Austin, Charleston, Jax, Dallas Raleigh
Copyright Zonda 2025
Final Thoughts and Forecast
• Start activity should see a 5% to 8% increase in 2025
• High mortgage rates will continue to push demand to the new home market (builders can offset, existing home sellers cannot)
• Quality of employment growth and migration are trends to watch
• Builders need to be planning for the next three to five years – “Buy
land, they’re not making it anymore.”
• More builders are entering secondary / adjacent markets – Keep your eyes on new opportunities (Corpus, Fredericksburg, etc.)
• Private builders – market is still open for M&A
• As Jim Harbaugh says “Who’s Got it Better Than Us?”
© 2022 Zonda
San Antonio
2025 Housing Forecast
Bryan Glasshagel
38 2025 HOUSING FORECAST