Page 8 - Philippine Development Plan (2017-2022) Abridged Version
P. 8

Global and Regional Trends
        and Prospects



        Various inter-related international trends projected over the medium term were
        considered for the Philippine Development Plan (PDP) 2017-2022.


        Economic Trends

        Global economic growth is assumed to remain sluggish without an immediate
        prospect of renewed vigor. The outlook is clouded by uncertainty on the policy
        stance of the United States’ (US).

        The slowdown in emerging markets, including China, is expected to continue.
        However, the ASEAN-5 is expected to recover from this slowdown, with an average
        growth of 5.4 percent in 2017-2022.

        Global trade is expected to improve slightly, growing by 3.9 percent annually over
        the period 2017-2022. The rise of global production networks and buying chains,
        among other trends, will further drive integration.

        Over  the  medium  term,  global  foreign  direct  investment  flows  are  projected  to
        surpass US$1.8 trillion in 2018, reflecting an increase in global growth.

        Monetary policy in the US will likely move towards normalization, while those in
        the European Union and Japan will be accommodative to support the recovery of
        their economies.

        Political Trends


        The political landscape will continue to be affected by the backlash resulting from
        the global financial crisis (GFC). Already, the GFC has given rise to populist and
        protectionist regimes, like the United Kingdom’s “Brexit” referendum results and
        the US election results.


        The  Middle  East  will  probably  continue  to  be  a  region  of  instability,  while  the
        Philippine claim on the West Philippine Sea is likely to remain unresolved.








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