Page 8 - Philippine Development Plan (2017-2022) Abridged Version
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Global and Regional Trends
and Prospects
Various inter-related international trends projected over the medium term were
considered for the Philippine Development Plan (PDP) 2017-2022.
Economic Trends
Global economic growth is assumed to remain sluggish without an immediate
prospect of renewed vigor. The outlook is clouded by uncertainty on the policy
stance of the United States’ (US).
The slowdown in emerging markets, including China, is expected to continue.
However, the ASEAN-5 is expected to recover from this slowdown, with an average
growth of 5.4 percent in 2017-2022.
Global trade is expected to improve slightly, growing by 3.9 percent annually over
the period 2017-2022. The rise of global production networks and buying chains,
among other trends, will further drive integration.
Over the medium term, global foreign direct investment flows are projected to
surpass US$1.8 trillion in 2018, reflecting an increase in global growth.
Monetary policy in the US will likely move towards normalization, while those in
the European Union and Japan will be accommodative to support the recovery of
their economies.
Political Trends
The political landscape will continue to be affected by the backlash resulting from
the global financial crisis (GFC). Already, the GFC has given rise to populist and
protectionist regimes, like the United Kingdom’s “Brexit” referendum results and
the US election results.
The Middle East will probably continue to be a region of instability, while the
Philippine claim on the West Philippine Sea is likely to remain unresolved.
8 | Abridged Philippine Development Plan 2017-2022