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EW SPOTLIGHT FEATURE
CAN CHINA EMULATE THE UKRAINIAN

WAR IN TAIWAN?

ussia’s actions in Ukraine have An example of this was when the People’s
caused a serious legitimacy Liberation Army (PLA) dispatched 80
Rcrisis to almost all approaches fighters and bombers into Taiwan’s airspace
and institutions of Post-World War II last October to mark the PRC’s founding.
international politics. As the world continues Chinese fighters also entered Taiwanese
watching with horror the events unfolding in airspace soon after President Tsai Ing-wen
Ukraine, threats of an emulation of similar voiced her support for Ukraine and as other
styles of aggression loom large in Taiwan. A Taiwanese politicians drew an equivalence
democratically controlled nation which the between Russia’s dispute with Ukraine and
People’s Republic of China (PRC) claims the PRC’s with Taiwan.
is part of its territory, Taiwan is regarded as Unlike Russia, China will need to cross
one of the world’s most volatile hotspots. over a hundred miles of the Formosa
Unlike Ukraine, Taiwan is not recognised Strait to invade Taiwan, which will prove to
as a sovereign nation. Immediately after be a complex undertaking. Weeks, if not
Russia attacked Ukraine, Taiwan raised months, will be required to position forces
alert levels expecting a similar stunt from Dr. Sriparna Pathak along China’s coast. All of this will need
China. Beijing dispatched fighter aircraft Associate Professor and Director resources, which the Chinese government
and conducted war exercises in Taiwan Centre for Northeast Asian Studies could instead allocate for ensuring food
aimed to erode support for the self- Jindal School of International Affairs security or for addressing unemployment.
governing island’s de facto independence. O.P. Jindal Global University With suitable landing sites in Taiwan being
To answer the question of whether Beijing limited, a military adventure will need
will orchestrate a similar style of conflict in has unleashed fresh havoc across China extensive planning. What’s worse is that the
Taiwan, it becomes pertinent to consider the as cities go under stringent lockdowns as PLA has not experienced full-scale combat
PRC’s domestic conditions first. part of China’s zero Covid strategy. Last in 40 years!
At the National People’s Congress month, China’s major finance and tech The severity of sanctions on Moscow
staged last month (March), Premier Li hub Shenzhen (pop. 17.5 million) went is another aspect that Beijing is keeping a
Keqiang announced a 5.5 percent growth under lockdown. This was preceded by a close watch on. The Chinese economy has
for 2022, which is the lowest annual lockdown in Changchun (pop. 9 million). All benefited using the forces of globalisation
target since 1991! Li warned of a grave of these have serious social and economic and foreign trade. With an extremely slowed
and uncertain outlook given the backdrop implications. down economy, Xi would prefer avoiding
of the Coronavirus pandemic, a slowing In 2020 when China’s society and any measure that would further slow
economy and the war in Ukraine. In economy was reeling under the impact down its economy, leading to questions
February, the surveyed unemployment of the pandemic, on Weibo (aka China’s on his style of governance. In the recent
rate in urban areas was 5.5 percent, up twitter), “princelings” or the children of past, many senior CPC cadres, officials,
from 5.3 percent in January. Even though high-level veteran CPC cadres called for an academics, students, intellectuals and
population growth has slowed, recognising emergency enlarged meeting of the CPC’s others have risked punishment to criticise
that the pandemic and natural disasters Politburo to discuss Xi’s replacement. Xi Xi Jinping on social media. Intellectuals
have threatened China’s food systems, would not want a repeat so close to the and professors such as Xu Zhongrun, Xu
President Xi Jinping talked about the need 20th Party Congress. A decision for war Zhiyong, Zhang Xuezhong and Yu Linqi
to stabilise food production and expand would prove expensive for China which have demanded on WeChat that Xi Jinping
output of crops at the Chinese People’s already has low targeted growth rates! step down. So close to the 20th Party
Political Consultative Conference on March While China has stepped up its incursions Congress, Xi would surely want to avoid
6. Xi is keen to maintain stability within the in Taiwanese airspace, the provocations more such voices. Taiwan has smartly
Communist Party of China (CPC) and within do not signal a near term invasion. These stepped up its defence in preparation for
the country at large before this fall’s 20th operations are intended to stoke domestic the worst, but an immediate emulation of
Party Congress when he assumes a once nationalism and often correlate with Ukraine in Taiwan by the PRC is not on the
unthinkable third term as party secretary. important symbolic anniversaries or to cards at least till the time Xi assumes his
The stealth Omicron variant of Covid-19 display China’s disagreements with Taiwan. third term in office this fall!

EDUCATIONWORLD APRIL 2022