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We can dismiss the second and fourth options
above (IoT and FWA) as either happening in 4G, or
not being relevant to this 5G discussion. That leaves
the ultra-reliable communications. The mobile oper-
ators had been hoping that new applications such as
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pensable and be willing to pay large fees for it, but
over the last year or so realisation has started to set
in that this is unlikely. Autonomous cars are, well,
autonomous, and do not need connectivity beyond
that currently available (otherwise, how would all All the things 5G could be, it will actually
the tests in California and elsewhere be happening?).
Remote surgery is often cited as an application, but end up as just a minor enhancement to 4G,
there are not many remote surgeons in the world, and something we hardly notice and which merely
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connectivity anyway. Despite claims to the contrary enables the mobile operators to accommodate
by equipment vendors desperate to sell 5G base a few more years of capacity growth.
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unlikely and “build it and they will come” is a huge
risk with such an expensive deployment approach. So 5G will bring about a change, but not the
But perhaps it was always so – perhaps each new move to a utopian gigabit-connected digital society
generation required a leap of faith? There is a belief that the industry anticipates. The failure of 5G to
in the industry that the odd-numbered generations shift the current model via new services and new
have been loss-making while the even-numbered revenue streams will expose weaknesses across the
RQHV KDYH EHHQ SURÀWDEOH * À[HG WKH VHFXULW\ cellular value chain and highlight that the action is
and capacity issues in 1G and was a great success. now happening elsewhere. For those involved in the
3G was a leap into the unknown world of data and industry from operators to manufacturers to regu-
did not quite get it right. 4G corrected the prob- lators, this will be a seismic shift. For those using
lems with 3G and has been successful. 5G appears mobile phones it might just be a change of provider
to be another leap into the unknown. But unlike DQG WKH EHQHÀW RI FRQQHFWLYLW\ HYHU\ZKHUH
3G which happened during a tech bubble, 5G is
happening in an era of austerity. About the Author
We started with a question – as to whether the Professor William Webb provides
next ten years would be the same as the past, or technical and strategic consultancy
would see an alternative world where the demand across the wireless communications
for ubiquitous connectivity moves us towards space. His activities include advising
widespread Wi-Fi as a key access mechanism. The CEOs, Government Ministers, and
discussion above suggests that of all the things regulatory bodies. William is also the part-time
5G could be, it will actually end up as just a minor CEO of the Weightless SIG, the standards body
enhancement to 4G, something we hardly notice developing a new global M2M technology and
and which merely enables the mobile operators to was President of the IET – Europe’s largest
accommodate a few more years of capacity growth. Professional Engineering body during 14/15. He is
0RELOH UHYHQXHV ZLOO FRQWLQXH WR GHFOLQH RU ÁDW also a Visiting Professor at multiple universities and
line and operators will continue to limit investment. a Fellow of the Royal Academy of Engineering, the
This opens the way for the Wi-Fi alternatives, on IEEE and the IET.
trains, in buildings and so on. That in turn leads to
a world where we seek connectivity providers who References
1. William Webb, 2016, “The 5G Myth”, Amazon.
can deliver bundled services – like Google with 2. See http://transition.fcc.gov/Daily_Releases/Daily
Project-Fi in the US. _Business/2017/db0907/DOC-346595A1.pdf

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