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SCIENCEFriday 23 October 2015
Study finds the warmer it gets, the more world economy hurts
SETH BORENSTEIN humming de- But because the U.S. is
AP Science Writer now at that ultimate peak,
WASHINGTON (AP) — With spite the heat. there’s greater uncertainty
each upward degree, in the study’s calculations
global warming will singe When asked how than in places like India,
the economies of three- Pakistan, Vietnam, Nigeria
quarters of the world’s na- that can be so, and Venezuela where it’s
tions and widen the north- already hot and there’s
south gap between rich Burke said there more certainty about dra-
and poor countries, ac- matic economic harm,
cording to a new econom- were many fac- Hsiang said.
ic and science study. The authors’ main figures
Compared to what it would tors important for are based on the premise
be without more global that carbon dioxide emis-
warming, the average growth beyond sions will continue to rise at
global income will shrivel 23 the current trajectory. But
percent at the end of the just tempera- countries across the world
century if heat-trapping are pledging to control if
carbon dioxide pollution ture. He said one not cut carbon pollution
continues to grow at its as international leaders
current trajectory, accord- year’s tempera- prepare for a summit on
ing to a study published climate change in Paris
Wednesday in the scientific ture and eco- later this year. If the cur-
journal Nature. rent pledges are kept, the
Some countries, like Russia, nomic growth in warming cost in 2100 will
Mongolia and Canada, drop from 23 percent to 15
would see large economic one nation isn’t percent, Burke said.
benefits from global warm- Gary Yohe, an environmen-
ing, the study projects. Most telling. Instead, tal economist at Wesleyan
of Europe would do slightly University in Connecticut,
better, the United States he and Hsiang praised the study as sig-
and China slightly worse. nificant and thorough, say-
Essentially all of Africa, Asia, looked at more ing Burke and Hsiang “use
South America and the the most modern socio-
Middle East would be hurt than 6,000 “coun- economic scenarios.” But
dramatically, the econo- Richard Tol, an economist
mists found. try-years” to get a at the University of Sussex
“What climate change is in England, dismissed the
doing is basically devalu- bigger picture. study as unworthy to be
ing all the real estate south published in an economics
of the United States and In this June 3, 2013 file photo, Pakistani laborers bathe at a leaked water hy- Burke compared journal, saying “the hypoth-
making the whole planet the effect of esized relationship is with-
less productive,” said study drant at the end of a day on the outskirts of Islamabad. out foundation.”
co-author Solomon Hsiang, Associated Press global warming Other experts found good
an economist and public and bad points, with
policy professor at the Uni- sentially a massive transfer every degree of warm- on economies to MIT’s John Reilly saying it
versity of California Berke- of value from the hot parts ing heats up the economy a head wind on a cross- will spark quite a debate
ley. “Climate change is es- of the world to the cooler and benefits. For the United country airplane flight. The among economists.q
parts of the world.” States and other countries effects at any given mo-
“This is like taking from the already at or above that ment are small and seem-
poor and giving to the temperature, every degree ingly unnoticeable but
rich,” Hsiang said. slows productivity, Burke they add up and slow you
Lead author Marshall Burke and Hsiang said. down.
of Stanford and Hsiang ex- The 20th-century global av- While it is fairly obvious that
amined 50 years of eco- erage annual temperature unusual high temperatures
nomic data in 160 countries is 57 degrees, or 13.9 de- hurt agriculture, past stud-
and even county-by-coun- grees Celsius, according to ies show hot days even re-
ty data in the United States the National Oceanic and duce car production at U.S.
and found what Burke Atmospheric Administra- factories, Burke said.
called “the goldilocks zone tion. Last year — the hottest “The U.S. is really close
in global temperature at on record — was 58.24 de- to the global optimum,”
which humans are good grees and this year is almost Burke said, adding that as
at producing stuff” — an certain to break that re- it warms, the U.S. will fall
annual temperature of cord, according to NOAA. off that peak. The authors
around 13 degrees Celsius Burke and Hsiang use differ- calculate a warmer U.S. in
or 55.4 degrees Fahrenheit, ent population-weighted 2100 will have a gross do-
give or take a degree. temperature figures than mestic product per person
For countries colder than NOAA calculates. that’s 36 percent lower
that economic sweet spot, But the U.S. economy is than it would be if warming
stopped about now.
