Page 38 - Town of Newcomb Comprehensive Plan - 2010

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3.0 Buildout Analysis

In order to better understand Newcomb’s growth potential, a Geographic Information Systems
(GIS) buildout analysis was conducted. A buildout analysis is an estimate of the overall

development potential of a land area given a set of assumptions and constraints. Utilizing APA
and Newcomb land use regulations, as well as environmental and regulatory constraints (i.e.
wetlands, streams, steep slopes, depth to bedrock and water table, etc.), an estimate of the
total number of potential residential dwelling units was calculated. The buildout analysis
examined two (2) scenarios that differed in the severity of environmental constraints applied:

Environmental Constraints Considered for Buildout Analysis

Scenario 1 Scenario 2
“Base Constraints” “Base and Severe Constraints”
• Slopes greater than 15% • All Scenario 1 Constraints
• APA wetlands w/ 100 feet regulatory buffer • Depth to bedrock less than 2 feet
• Surface waters & Streams w/ 100 feet buffer • Depth to water table less than 2 feet
• Elevation greater than 2,500 feet
• Lands within 100 feet of an historic site

Since the objective of the buildout analysis was to determine the number of potential
residential dwelling units, certain parcels were excluded from the build out study because the
ownership or current use of the parcel preclude residential development of the land. Parcels
owned by New York State (e.g. the Forest Preserve), SUNY ESF (Huntington Forest), The Nature
Conservancy and the Open Space Institute were excluded from the study. In addition, parcels
containing churches, cemeteries, landfills, parking lots, public parks, picnic grounds, power
generating facilities, water and sewer treatment plants, utilities and public buildings were also
excluded from the study. The remaining parcels in the Town, consisting of publicly and

privately‐owned residential land, commercial land, vacant land, and private forest land were
included in the study and analyzed for potential residential development. The buildout analysis
examined development potential based upon their total acreage of “unconstrained” land and
the level of existing development. Based on these calculations, it was determined that a total of
575 new dwelling units could be constructed under Scenario 1 constraints, and 403 new
dwelling units could be constructed under Scenario 2 constraints. The results by zoning district
are provided in Table 8. Figures 21‐24 (see Appendix I) illustrate the results of the buildout
analysis, and highlight which parcels are “constrained” to development and which are

“buildable” or “underutilized.”

Given the likelihood Nature Conservancy and Open Space Institute will transfer lands they
purchased from Finch Paper, LLC to the State of New York, and that they have shown interest in

Town of Newcomb Comprehensive Plan
March 2010