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Saturday 20 May 2017 BUSINESS
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               Prospect of NAFTA rewrite gives U.S. farmers a case of jitters


            PAUL WISEMAN                                                                                                        Trump  has  also  threat-
             AP Economics Writer                                                                                                ened  to  impose  tariffs  on
            WASHINGTON  (AP)  —  A                                                                                              Chinese  and  Mexican  im-
            sizable  majority  of  rural                                                                                        ports, thereby raising fears
            Americans  backed  Don-                                                                                             that those trading partners
            ald  Trump’s  presidential                                                                                          would  retaliate  with  their
            bid,  drawn  to  his  calls  to                                                                                     own sanctions.
            slash  environmental  rules,                                                                                        Farmers  know  they’re  fre-
            strengthen  law  enforce-                                                                                           quently  the  first  casualties
            ment and replace the fed-                                                                                           of trade wars. Many recall
            eral health care law.                                                                                               a  2009  trade  rift  in  which
            But many farmers are ner-                                                                                           China  responded  to  U.S.
            vous  about  another  plank                                                                                         tire  tariffs  by  imposing  tar-
            in  Trump’s  agenda:  His                                                                                           iffs  on  U.S.  chicken  parts.
            vow to overhaul U.S. trade                                                                                          And Mexico slapped tariffs
            policy,  including  his  intent                                                                                     on U.S. goods ranging from
            announced Thursday to re-                                                                                           ham  to  onions  to  Christ-
            negotiate the North Ameri-                                                                                          mas trees in 2009 to protest
            can Free Trade Agreement                                                                                            a  ban  on  Mexican  trucks
            with Canada and Mexico.                                                                                             crossing the border.
            Trump’s    message    that                                                                                          The  White  House  declined
            NAFTA was a job-killing di-                                                                                         to  comment  on  farmers’
            saster  had  never  resonat-  In this Tuesday, April 4, 2017, photo, Blake Hurst, a corn and soybean farmer and president of the   fears  that  Trump’s  trade
            ed much in rural America.    Missouri Farm Bureau, center, jokes with his brothers Brooks Hurst, left, and Kevin Hurst, right, on his   policy stands to hurt them.
            NAFTA  had  widened  ac-     farm in Westboro, Mo.                                                                  But  officials  say  they’ve
            cess  to  Mexican  and  Ca-                                                                        Associated Press  sought  to  ease  concerns,
            nadian  markets,  boosting                                                                                          by,  for  example,  having
            U.S. farm exports and ben-                                                                                          Agriculture  Secretary  Per-
            efiting many farmers.        enjoyed  a  trade  surplus  tariffs, annual farm exports   with a map showing areas    due announce a new un-
            Farm Country went on red     in  farm  products  since  at  to  Mexico  have  jumped   that would be hurt most by   dersecretary  to  oversee
            alert  last  month  when  it   least  1967,  government  nearly  five-fold  to  about   a pullout, overlapped with   trade  and  foreign  agricul-
            looked  as  if  Trump  wasn’t   data show. Last year, farm  $18  billion.  Mexico  is  the   many that voted for Trump.  tural affairs.
            even  going  to  pursue  a   exports  exceeded  imports  No.  3  market  for  U.S.  agri-  “I  tried  to  demonstrate  to   Many farmers are still hope-
            NAFTA rewrite: White House   by $20.5 billion.            culture,  notably  corn,  soy-  him that in the agricultural   ful  about  the  Trump  ad-
            aides had spread the word    “You  don’t  start  off  trade  beans and pork.           market,  sometimes  words    ministration.  Some,  for  ex-
            that  the  president  would   negotiations  ...  by  picking  “The  trade  agreements   like  ‘withdraw’  or  ‘termi-  ample,  applaud  his  plans
            simply  withdraw  from  the   fights with your trade part-  that we’ve had have been   nate’  can  have  a  major   to   slash   environmental
            pact.                        ners  that  are  completely  very  beneficial,”  says  Ste-  impact  on  markets,”  Per-  rules  that  they  say  inflate
            “Mr.  President,  America’s   unnecessary,”  says  Aaron  phen  Censky,  CEO  of  the   due  said  in  an  interview   the cost of running a farm.
            corn  farmers  helped  elect   Lehman, a fifth-generation  American  Soybean  Asso-    with  The  Associated  Press.   Some  also  hold  out  hope
            you,”  Wesley  Spurlock  of   Iowa farmer who produces  ciation. “We need to take      “I think the president made   that the author of “The Art
            the  National  Corn  Grow-   corn,  soybeans,  oats  and  care not to blow the signifi-  a very wise decision for the   of the Deal” will negotiate
            ers  Association  warned  in   hay.                       cant gains that agriculture   benefit  of  many  agricul-  ways to improve NAFTA.
            a statement. “Withdrawing    Many  farmers  worry  that  has won.”                     tural  producers  across  the   One  such  way  might  in-
            from  NAFTA  would  be  di-  Trump’s  policies  will  jeop-  The  U.S.  has  run  a  surplus   country”  by  choosing  to   volve  Canada.  NAFTA  let
            sastrous for American agri-  ardize  their  exports  just  as  in  farm  trade  with  Mexico   remain in NAFTA.     Canada  shield  its  dairy
            culture.”                    they  face  weaker  crop  for 20 of the 23 years since    Trump  delivered  another    farmers  from  foreign  com-
            Within  hours,  Trump  soft-  and livestock prices.       NAFTA took effect. Still, the   disappointment  for  U.S.   petition  behind  tariffs  and
            ened    his   stance.   He   “It comes up pretty quickly  surpluses  with  Mexico  be-  farm groups in January by   regulations but left at least
            wouldn’t  actually  dump     in conversation,” says Blake  came  deficits  in  2015  and   fulfilling a pledge to aban-  one exception — an Amer-
            NAFTA,  he  said.  He’d  first   Hurst, a corn and soybean  2016  as  global  livestock   don the Trans-Pacific Part-  ican ultra-filtered milk used
            try to forge a more advan-   farmer in northwestern Mis-  and grain prices plummet-    nership, which the Obama     in  cheese.  When  Cana-
            tageous  deal  with  Mexico   souri’s Atchison County.    ed  and  shrank  the  value   administration  negotiated   dian  farmers  complained
            and  Canada  —  a  move      That    county’s     voters  of American exports, notes   with  11  Asia-Pacific  coun-  about  the  cheaper  im-
            that formally began Thurs-   backed  Trump  more  than  Joseph  Glauber  of  the  In-  tries.  Trump  argued  that   ports,  Canada  changed
            day when his top trade ne-   3-to-1  in  the  election  but  ternational Food Policy Re-  the pact would cost Amer-  its  policy  and  effectively
            gotiator,  Robert  Lighthizer,   now feel “it would be bet-  search Institute.         icans  jobs  by  pitting  them   priced  ultra-filtered  Ameri-
            informed  Congress  of  the   ter if the rhetoric (on trade)  Mexico has begun to seek   against  low-wage  Asian   can milk out of the market.
            administration’s  intent  to   was  a  little  less  strident,”  alternatives  to  U.S.  food   labor.              “Canada  has  made  busi-
            renegotiate NAFTA.           says Hurst, president of the  because,  as  its  agriculture   But  the  deal  would  have   ness  for  our  dairy  farmers
            As  a  candidate,  Trump     Missouri Farm Bureau.        secretary,  Jose  Calzada    given U.S. farmers broader   in Wisconsin and other bor-
            defined his “America First”   Trump’s  main  argument  Rovirosa,  said  in  March,     access  to  Japan’s  notori-  der  states  very  difficult,”
            stance as a means to fight   against  NAFTA  and  other  Trump’s  remarks  on  trade   ously  impregnable  market   Trump tweeted last month.
            unfair foreign competition.   pacts  was  that  they  ex-  “have  injected  uncertain-  and  easier  entry  into  fast-  “We will not stand for this.
            He blamed unjust deals for   posed American workers to  ty” into the agriculture busi-  growing  Vietnam.  Philip   Watch!”
            swelling  U.S.  trade  gaps   unequal  competition  with  ness.                        Seng  of  the  U.S.  Meat  Ex-  Some U.S. cattle producers
            and stealing factory jobs.   low-wage workers in coun-    Once  word  had  surfaced    port Federation notes that   would also like a renegoti-
            But NAFTA and other deals    tries like Mexico and China.  that Trump was considering   the  U.S.  withdrawal  from   ated  NAFTA  to  give  them
            have been good for Amer-     NAFTA  did  lead  some  pulling out of NAFTA, Sonny       TPP  left  Australia  with  a   something the current ver-
            ican  farmers,  who  stand   American    manufacturers  Perdue,  two  days  into  his   competitive   advantage     sion doesn’t:
            to  lose  if  Trump  ditches   to move factories and jobs  job  as  the  president’s  ag-  because  it  had  already   The right to label their prod-
            the pact or ignites a trade   to Mexico. But since it took  riculture  secretary,  has-  negotiated  lower  tariffs  in   uct “Made in America.” In
            war. The United States has   effect  in  1994  and  eased  tened  to  the  White  House   Japan.                    2015, q
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