Page 28 - ARUBA TODAY

A28 SCIENCE
Tuesday 21 augusT 2018

Science Says: Hotter weather turbocharges U.S. West wildfires

By SETH BORENSTEIN without extensive analysis,
AP Science Writer but scientists have done
As temperatures rise in the those extensive examina-
U.S. West, so do the flames. tions on wildfire.
The years with the most John Abatzgolou of the
acres burned by wildfires University of Idaho looked
have some of the hottest at forest fires and dry
temperatures, an Associ- conditions in the Western
ated Press analysis of fire United States from 1979 to
and weather data found. 2015 and compared that
As human-caused climate to computer simulations of
change has warmed the what would be expected
world over the past 35 with no human-caused
years, the land consumed climate change. He con-
by flames has more than cluded that global warm-
doubled. ing had a role in an extra
Experts say the way global 16,200 square miles (42,000
warming worsens wildfires square kilometers) of for-
comes down to the basic ests burning since 1984.
dynamics of fire. Fires need A study of the 2015 Alaska
ignition, oxygen and fuel. fire season — the second
And what’s really changed biggest on record — did a
is fuel — the trees, brush similar simulation analysis,
and other plants that go up In this Aug. 7, 2018 file photo, firefighters monitor a backfire while battling the Ranch Fire, part of concluding that climate
in flames. the Mendocino Complex Fire near Ladoga, Calif. change from the burn-
“Hotter, drier weather Associated Press ing of coal, oil and gas in-
means our fuels are drier, fornia in July logged its hot- fornia and Oregon are flirt- spokesman. creased the risk of the fire
so it’s easier for fires to start test month in 124 years of ing with record dry levels, From 1983 to 1999, the season being that severe
and spread and burn more record-keeping. NOAA western regional United States didn’t reach by 34 to 60 percent.
intensely,” said University of The five years with the most climate center director Tim 10,000 square miles burned One 2015 study said glob-
Alberta fire scientist Mike acres burned since 1983 Brown said. annually. Since then, 10 ally fire seasons are about
Flannigan. averaged 63.4 degrees And low humidity is “the key years have had more 18.7 percent longer since
It’s simple, he said: “The from April to September. driver of wildfire spread,” than 10,000 square miles 1979. Another study that
warmer it is, the more fire That’s 1.2 degrees warmer according to University of burned, including 2017, year says climate change
we see.” than average and 2.4 de- Colorado fire scientist Jen- 2015 and 2006 when more is increasing extreme wild-
Federal fire and weather grees hotter than the years nifer Balch who says the than 15,000 square miles fire risk in California where
data show higher air tem- with the least acres burned, Western U.S. soon will start burned. wildfires already are year-
peratures are turbocharg- AP’s data analysis shows. to see wildfires of 1 million Some people who reject round.
ing fire season. In California, the five years acres (1,562 square miles). mainstream climate sci- Also, drought and bark
The five hottest Aprils to with the most acres burned Veteran Colorado hotshot ence point to statistics that beetles have killed 129 mil-
Septembers out West pro- (not including this year) av- firefighter Mike Sugaski seem to show far more lion trees in California since
duced years that on av- erage 2.1 degrees warmer used to consider 10,000- acres burned in the 1930s 2016, creating more fuel.
erage burned more than than the five years with the acre (16-square-mile) fires and 1940s. But Eardley said Contrary to fire scientists,
13,500 square miles (35,000 least acres burned. big, now he fights ones 10 statistics before 1983 are Interior Secretary Ryan Zin-
square kilometers), accord- A degree or two may seem times that or more. not reliable because fires ke this week told Breitbart
ing to data at the National like not much, but it is cru- “You kind of keep saying, “may be double-counted, radio that “what’s driving”
Interagency Fire Center cial for fuel. The hotter it is, ‘How can they get much tripled-counted or more.” increased wildfires is an in-
and the National Oceanic the more water evaporates worse?’ But they do,” Sug- Nationally, more than 8,900 crease in fuel. He said the
and Atmospheric Adminis- from plants. When fuel dries aski said. square miles (23,050 kilo- government has “been
tration . faster, fires spread more The number of U.S. wildfires meters) have burned this held hostage by environ-
That’s triple the average and burn more intensely, hasn’t changed much over year, about 28 percent mental terrorist groups”
for the five coldest Aprils to experts said. the last few decades, but more than the 10-year av- that oppose clearing dead
Septembers. For every 1.8 degrees Fahr- the area consumed has erage as of mid-August. trees that they say provide
The Western summer so enheit that the air warms, it soared. California is having one of wildlife habitat. Zinke, how-
far is more than 3 degrees needs 15 percent more rain “The year 2000 seemed to its worst years. ever, has acknowledged
Fahrenheit (1.7 degrees to make up for the drying be some kind of turning Scientists generally avoid that climate change was
Celsius) warmer than the of the fuel, Flannigan said. point,” said Randy Eard- blaming global warming a factor in worsening
20th century average. Cali- Fuel moisture levels in Cali- ley, the fire center’s chief for specific extreme events wildfires.q