Page 25 - aruba-today-20161231
P. 25

BUSINESS                 Saturday 31 december 2016
                                                                                                                           A25

                     Globalization took hits in 2016; Will 2017 lead to more?



                                                                                                   MARKETS MARCH ON             set  to  follow  up  its  first  in-
                                                                                                   Trump’s  victory  did  not  terest rate hike in nearly a
                                                                                                   cause  the  bottom  to  fall  decade  with  three  or  four
                                                                                                   out  of  the  stock  market  more  in  2016.  But  there
                                                                                                   rally  that’s  been  largely  in  was no move until Dec. 14,
                                                                                                   place since 2009, when the  when the U.S. central bank
                                                                                                   world  economy  started  to  raised its main interest rate
                                                                                                   first claw out of its deepest  to  a  range  between  0.5
                                                                                                   recession  since  World  War  percent and 0.75 percent.
                                                                                                   II.  In  fact,  both  the  Dow  Many  factors  explained  its
                                                                                                   and  the  S&P  500  rallied  to  hesitation to raise rates, in-
                                                                                                   hit a series of record highs.  cluding  unease  over  the
                                                                                                   Stocks have also benefited  global  impact  of  China’s
                                                                                                   from a raft of big corporate  economic  slowdown  and
                                                                                                   deals  this  year  —  execu-  uncertainty   surrounding
                                                                                                   tives  are  seeing  takeovers  the U.S. election.
                                                                                                   as a fast way to generate  But  with  the  U.S.  econo-
                                                                                                   growth  in  a  low-growth  my  continuing  to  do  bet-
                                                                                                   global economy disrupted  ter  than  most  developed
                                                                                                   by  non-stop  technological  countries  —  with  unem-
                                                                                                   innovations. Notable deals  ployment below 5 percent
                                                                                                   in 2016 included the $85 bil-  and inflation edging up —
            In this Oct. 25, 2016, photo, a pedestrian passes the New York Stock Exchange, in lower Manhat-  lion merger of Time Warner  the  Fed  finally  delivered
            tan.                                                                                   and  AT&T  and  the  $57  bil-  another  hike.  The  markets
                                                                                  Associated Press
                                                                                                   lion  takeover  of  Monsanto  are   predicting   another
            PAN PYLAS                    came as a surprise — cer-    punish  China  for  the  way   by Germany medicine and  three or four increases next
             Associated Press            tainly  to  bookmakers  and   it  devalues  its  currency   farm-chemical maker Bay-   year.  Those  expectations
            LONDON  (AP)  —  Global-     many  pollsters  who  had    against  the  dollar  and  to   er. The $100 billion takeover  have helped the dollar ral-
            ization,  the  path  that  the  consistently   given   the   tax  U.S.  firms  that  move   of  SABMiller  by  Budweiser  ly,  especially  as  other  ma-
            world economy has largely  “remain”  side  the  edge      jobs overseas.               maker  Anheuser-Busch  In-   jor central banks persevere
            followed for decades, took  —  and  means  Britain  has   He  has  also  laid  out  plans   Bev was also completed.  with  super-loose  monetary
            some hefty blows in 2016.    to  redefine  itself  after  43   to  bring  America’s  creak-  ___                    policies to breathe life into
            The  election  of  Donald  years  of  EU  membership.     ing  infrastructure  up  to   FED FINALLY DELIVERS        their economies.
            Trump as U.S. president and  David  Cameron  resigned     21st-century  standards,  a   During   his   campaign,  ___
            Britain’s  decision  to  leave  as  prime  minister  after  the   new  spending  pitch  that   Trump said Federal Reserve  CHINA’S KEY ROLE
            the  European  Union  have  vote and the new Conser-      has the potential to boost   Chair  Janet  Yellen  should  As  the  world’s  second-
            raised  questions  over  the  vative  government  led  by   jobs  —  but  which  could   be “ashamed” of the way  largest  economy,  China  is
            future  of  tariff-free  trade  Theresa May is planning to   also lay the seeds of higher   she’s  run  policy  since  tak-  playing a bigger role in the
            and  companies’  freedom  trigger  the  formal  process   inflation.                   ing the helm in 2014. A year  functioning  of  the  global
            to move production to low-   by which Britain exits the EU   ___                       ago,  the  Fed  appeared  economy.q
            er-cost countries.           early next year.
            Borders are back in vogue.  There  are  many  shades  of
            Economic  nationalism  is  potential  Brexit,  from  an
            paying political dividends.  outright divorce that could
            “We  want  our  country  put  up  tariffs  on  goods
            back”  was  the  rallying  cry  and  services,  to  a  more
            of  those  backing  Brexit,  a  amicable parting that sees
            sound bite that had echoes  many  of  the  current  trad-
            in Trump’s “Make America  ing  arrangements  kept  in
            great again.”                place.  The  pound’s  fall  to
            The  rise  of  Trump  and  the  a 31-year low below $1.20
            triumph  of  Brexit  had  their  at one point is testament to
            roots in the global financial  that uncertainty.
            crisis  of  2008.  Eight  years  ___
            later,  the  world  economy  TRUMP CARD
            has still not yet fully gotten  Pollsters  and  bookmakers
            past that shock to its con-  got  it  wrong  again  a  few
            fidence — people are ner-    months  later  when  Trump
            vous, some are angry, and  defeated  Hillary  Clinton  in
            many  are  seeking  novel  the  U.S.  presidential  elec-
            solutions to their problems.  tion.
            Next  year,  there’s  scope    Whether  he  translates  his
            for  more  uncertainty  with  “America  First”  platform
            elections  in  France  and  into  action  following  his
            Germany.                     inauguration  in  January
            Here’s a look at the year’s  will  help  shape  the  global
            top business stories for 2016:  economy for the next four
            ___                          years at least.
            BREXIT SHOCK                   Trump  has  railed  against
            In what was a sign of things  long-standing     trading
            to  come,  Britain  voted  to  agreements,  including  the
            leave  the  EU  in  a  referen-  North American Free Trade
            dum  in  June.  The  decision  Agreement, and vowed to
   20   21   22   23   24   25   26   27   28   29   30