Page 25 - AT

BUSINESS Monday 14 January 2019
A25

How's the US economy doing? Shutdown makes it harder to say

By CHRISTOPHER RUGABER ing the shutdown.
WASHINGTON (AP) — The The BLS wouldn't say wheth-
partial shutdown of the U.S. er data collection will con-
government has begun to tinue beyond January if the
make it harder to assess the shutdown continues.
health of the economy by A business journalists' orga-
delaying or distorting key nization on Friday urged
reports on growth, spend- "all parties" to end the shut-
ing and hiring. down, saying it is "deeply
Government data on home troubled" by delays in re-
construction and retail lease of the economic re-
sales, for example, won't ports.
be released next week be- "Timely access to data
cause staffers who compile about the United States
those reports have been economy is critical to deci-
furloughed. The retail sales sion-making by our nation's
report provides a snap- businesses and consumers,"
shot of consumer spend- the Society for Advancing
ing, which fuels more than Business Editing and Writ-
two-thirds of the economy. ing said in a statement.
With Macy's and Kohl's hav- "The continued partial shut-
ing said Thursday that their Government workers, American Federation of Government Employees union members and mem- down is disrupting the vital
holiday sales were weaker bers of supporting local unions, pose for a group photo during the rally to highlight the effect the flow of information."
than expected, a broader federal shutdown, Thursday, Jan. 10, 2019, in Minneapolis. Some economic reports
gauge of retail spending Associated Press have already been missed.
would have provided im- They include a monthly re-
portant clarity. stimulus from the Trump ad- trips to national parks that who will return to work af- port on factory orders that
In addition, the next report ministration's tax cuts is ex- won't be taken — may not terward — could be count- was scheduled for Mon-
on the economy's over- pected to fade. be made up. ed as unemployed for Jan- day. That report typically
all growth, set for Jan. 30, And borrowing costs have Fed officials are now stress- uary. provides insights into how
won't be released if the risen since the Federal Re- ing their flexibility on rate If so, that would raise the much U.S. companies are
shutdown remains in effect. serve raised short-term in- hikes, emphasizing that unemployment rate by 0.2 spending on large equip-
Even if the government has terest rates four times last they will be patient and percentage point, estimat- ment.
fully reopened by then, year. Before rebounding their policy "data depen- ed Ben Herzon, an econo- Inflation data will also be af-
federal workers won't likely this week, stock markets dent." By this, the Fed mist at Macroeconomic fected: The consumer price
have had enough time to had plummeted roughly means that the govern- Advisers, a forecasting firm. index was released Friday
produce the scheduled re- 16 percent from their peak ment's latest readings on And the monthly job count morning as scheduled,
port on the nation's gross Oct. 2. hiring, inflation and growth could decline by 380,000 because it was prepared
domestic product. Many economists increas- will factor heavily in its rate if the shutdown continues by the Labor Department.
Not all agencies are closed. ingly see the shutdown, decisions. Yet much of that through the end of Janu- But the Fed's preferred in-
Congress approved fund- should it persist, as a drag data will now be unavail- ary, Herzon said. That could flation gauge is published
ing last year for the Labor on the economy. Michael able — to the Fed or any- push the monthly job figure by Commerce's Bureau of
Department, so the gov- Feroli of J.P. Morgan has one else. into negative territory. Economic Analysis, which is
ernment's next monthly downgraded his forecast "For us, one of the biggest If all the federal workers closed.
jobs report will be released for growth in the first three effects of the shutdown eventually receive back And because the Agricul-
as scheduled on Feb. 1. But months of 2019 because of has been around data," pay, as occurred after pre- ture Department is closed,
it's unclear how long the the shutdown. He now ex- Raphael Bostic, president vious shutdowns, then the future reports on wholesale
department will be able pects the economy to grow of the Fed's Atlanta re- January jobs report would prices and import prices
to issue jobs reports — the at a 2 percent annual rate, gional bank, said Wednes- later be revised to restore won't include farm-related
most closely watched ba- down from his previous esti- day. "We're worrying about those 380,000 jobs, accord- data, the BLS said Thursday.
rometer of the economy — mate of 2.25 percent. that." ing to the Labor Depart- A report on the number of
after that. The shutdown is costing the Even some reports that are ment's Bureau of Labor Sta- people seeking unemploy-
Though the economy re- economy about $1.2 billion released on schedule are tistics. ment benefits, considered
mains healthy in most a week, according to Stan- likely to be distorted by the Future jobs reports could a nearly real-time reflec-
respects, there are ris- dard & Poor's. Some of that shutdown. For example, the be jeopardized, too, if the tion of layoffs, is still being
ing concerns that growth loss will be regained after January jobs report may government remains shut published. But it could be
could slow or even stall in federal workers eventually show an artificially high un- down. The Census Bureau distorted by the shutdown:
coming months. The trade receive back pay for the employment rate and low conducts the monthly sur- Nearly 5,000 federal em-
war between the United time they missed. But many employment figure. That's veys that the BLS uses to cal- ployees sought benefits
States and China, which government contractors because up to 380,000 fed- culate the unemployment two weeks ago, accord-
has helped depress glob- won't be made whole. eral employees who aren't rate. Census is part of the ing to the latest data avail-
al growth, is likely slowing And lost business — such as working or being paid dur- Commerce Department, able, roughly five times the
business investment. The scheduled hotel stays from ing the shutdown — but which remains closed dur- usual figure.q

Average US price of gas drops 12 cents per gallon to $2.31

Associated Press lon (3.8 liters) over the past crude oil costs are the main past 3 ½ months. The lowest average is $1.80
CAMARILLO, Calif. (AP) — three weeks to $2.31. reason for the decrease at The highest average price in Baton Rouge, Louisiana.
The average U.S. price of Industry analyst Trilby Lund- the pump. in the nation is $3.46 a gal- The average price of diesel
regular-grade gasoline has berg of the Lundberg Sur- The average gas price has lon in the San Francisco Bay fell 9 cents over the past
dropped 12 cents a gal- vey says Sunday that falling dropped 66 cents over the Area. three weeks, to $3.03. q