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BUSINESS Monday 8 october 2018
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As joblessness falls, skilled workers might be hard to find

By JOSH BOAK, adviser, told reporters Fri- in the government’s gauge remains below its peak, economy, Gimbel said. But
Associated Press day. of hourly earnings. it suggests that a pool of a shortage doesn’t neces-
Are America’s employ- At some point, many em- American Textile, a people exists who could sarily exist across the entire
ers at risk of running out of ployers will likely feel they’re 93-year-old manufacturer potentially start looking for economy. If it did, the pres-
skilled people to hire? running out of skilled work- of pillows, sheets and com- work or return to school to sures to raise wages would
The U.S. economy has be- be stronger.
come a seemingly per- ___
petual job-generating ma- A SLOWDOWN IN JOB
chine, having steadily add- GROWTH
ed workers for nearly eight When Joe Brusuelas
years. Even with the unem- scanned the September
ployment rate now at 3.7 jobs report, he saw signs
percent — its lowest point that a shortage of skilled
since 1969 — hiring hasn’t workers could emerge in
stalled. So far this year, job the near future. He’s the
growth has averaged a ro- chief economist for RSM, a
bust 208,000 a month, up consulting firm that special-
from a pace of 182,000 for izes in mid-size businesses.
all of 2017. “Over the past 12 months,
The trend has defied the we should start to see the
predictions of most econ- pace of hiring grind down,”
omists. Many have long he said.
warned that as hiring Brusuelas sees fewer peo-
surged and unemployment ple entering the labor
fell, the pool of potential force, a consequence of
hires would shrink and trig- lower birth rates and other
ger a bidding wire that demographic changes as
would ignite wage gains. the vast baby boom gen-
It hasn’t happened. Many eration retires. In June, the
people are still being hired growth of the labor force
each month. And pay rais- was 1.2 percent compared
es, though rising, remain In this June 21, 2018 file photo, a job applicant looks at job listings for the Riverside Hotel at a job with a year earlier. By Sep-
fair hosted by Job News South Florida, in Sunrise, Fla.
modest Associated Press tember, the 12-month
“Every single time that we growth in the labor force
predict job growth is going had more than halved to
to start slowing and wage ers to hire. Just not yet. Here forters based in Pittsburgh, obtain specialized skills or 0.52 percent.
growth is going to start will be five signals that a la- has found it a challenge in training for a job. Fewer people entering the
picking up in recent years, bor shortage may finally be recent months to add and To return to the peak par- job market could cause
we haven’t gotten that at hand: keep workers for its 800-per- ticipation rate would re- employers to slow their
right,” said Martha Gimbel, ___ son staff. It’s been raising quire roughly an additional pace of hiring because
research director for the PAY RAISES SPIKE pay by 3 percent to 4 per- 4 million people to start they couldn’t find enough
jobs listing site Indeed. Average hourly wages cent annually for years. But looking for a job and po- skilled workers.
To try to explain why em- have risen 2.8 percent in it’s now introducing the tentially find one. ___
ployers are still managing the past 12 months. That’s perk of paying bonuses as ___ FORMERLY UNDESIRABLE
to hire skilled workers at a basically keeping pace soon as three months after SHARPER MISMATCH BE- GROUPS BEING HIRED
steady pace, Gimbel para- with the inflation rate for a worker joins the compa- TWEEN OPENINGS AND The Trump administration’s
phrased a line from the consumer prices. But the ny. SKILL SETS drive to limit immigration
1971 movie “Willy Wonka & theory is that as economy “Just show up — you’ll get If there already were a could worsen any shortage
the Chocolate Factory”: keeps expanding and em- something extra,” said Pete severe shortage of skilled of qualified workers.
“There’s no knowing where ployers find they need to Marsalis, the company’s di- workers, a broad mismatch Brusuelas suggested that
we’re going, but it shows pay more to attract em- rector of human resources. would likely exist between employers who foresee
no sign of slowing.” ployees, pay could jump, ___ the types of jobs avail- a lack of qualified work-
In July, America’s employ- especially in some sectors LOTS MORE PEOPLE SEEKING able and the types of jobs ers might broaden their
ers posted a record 6.9 mil- of the economy that re- WORK people are seeking. But re- searches to groups they
lion job openings, which quire heavily skilled work- One of the best measures of search published last month wouldn’t have previously
actually exceeded the ers. available workers is what’s by the job listing site Indeed considered for hires. He es-
number of unemployed Some companies are called the participation suggests that the degree of timated, for example, that
people. The abundance already taking action. rate. That’s the proportion the mismatch has actually 8 million to 10 million people
of openings suggests that Consider Amazon’s just- of working-age adults who narrowed since 2014. with felony records can’t
companies expect to keep announced boost in its either have a job or are ac- In examining resumes post- fully participate in the job
hiring. minimum hourly wage to tively looking for one. ed to Indeed, the research- market now. Bringing these
Even the Trump administra- $15 starting in November. The participation rate for ers found that roughly one- people into the job market
tion, for all its brash public Amazon’s rival retailers and people defined as prime third don’t match the avail- is among the priorities of
confidence, acknowledg- warehouse operators, in age — 25 to 54 years old able jobs. Though that’s a President Donald Trump’s
es uncertainty about how particular, may feel pres- — was 81.8 percent in Sep- relatively high proportion, daughter Ivanka.
much further unemploy- sure to raise pay, too. tember. That is below the it’s less than in 2014, when On the White House lawn
ment can fall. For now, many employers peak of 84.6 percent in the proportion was closer Friday, Kudlow, the director
“It’s a tricky question, be- appear to be raising pay January 1999. to 40 percent. of the White House Nation-
cause I don’t think we only modestly while in some The rate increased in 2016 A shortage of skilled work- al Economic Council, also
know,” Larry Kudlow, the cases also offering short- and 2017, but it’s fluctuated ers, like nurses, might now endorsed the initiative.
president’s top economic term bonuses not included this year. Because the rate exist in certain sectors of the “I’m all for it,” he said.q