Page 657 - The ROV Manual - A User Guide for Remotely Operated Vehicles 2nd edition

658 CHAPTER 23 The Future of ROV Technology
The previously described systems and research will help produce the vehicles of the future. Visionary exploration and production companies (such as Chevron) continue to investigate methods to close the technology gaps in bringing resident AUVs into the oilfield. However, as we have seen in the past (when the ROVs first tried to break into the offshore arena) it takes more than one or two companies to make this happen. Standards must be developed, preferably ahead of time, that will allow the manufacturers to develop systems for supporting all companies involved in offshore exploration and development.
Required from industry will be consensus standards allowing the enabling technologies of stan- dardized docking stations (for disparate types of mobile robotic vehicles), communications proto- cols, and means by which onboard power can be recharged. Both the generation cost and acceptance of these standards must be broadly shared by stakeholders. One such initiative under way is by the Chevron-led research organization DeepStar. The 11304 subcommittee is developing recommended standards for autonomous vehicle docking stations (for power and data transfer between vehicle and host). This committee is tasked with formulating recommendations to API for adapting these enabling technologies through proposed modifications to API RP17. Another gov- ernment developmental organization is the United States’ Research Partnership to Secure Energy for America (RPSEA) established to foster innovation within the energy industry. It is only through broad financial participation between small innovative companies and larger industrial players that rapid technological revolution will arrive.
23.4 The crystal ball
So, what does the crystal ball say about our future in the ROV field (including AUVs and hybrids)?
In Douglas-Westwood’s “World ROV Market Forecast 2011
2015,” they project that annual expenditures on ROV support for underwater operations will rise from $891 million in 2010 to $1.7 billion in 2015. This is driven primarily by the offshore oil and gas sector. Oil prices are ris- ing, deepwater activity is surging, and the number of offshore rigs and subsea construction vessels will be reaching new highs to meet the demand.
And the market also looks good for AUVs in the future. According to Douglas-Westwood’s “World AUV Market Forecast 2012
2016,” the market growth will continue over the next 5 years. The size of the 2012 AUV fleet was 560 active vehicles, up from 390 in 2009. The report forecasts that the number will rise to 930 active AUVs by 2016. That should keep a few manufacturers busy.
On top of the basic forecasts, one must also figure in what Mother Nature has in store for the future. One of the guarantees in life is that she will raise havoc on an annual basis somewhere in the world. Catastrophic events certainly call for assets on an immediate scale that may not be read- ily available. And throw into this mix the human factor. Something will eventually go wrong, pro- ducing another time-critical requirement. As an example, consider the Macondo blow-out in the US Gulf of Mexico. That disaster certainly put a considerable number of vessels, ROVs, and AUVs to work trying to assess the damage and correct the problems. Since then, oil companies have devel- oped and staged massive capping stacks and containment systems (such as those eventually used on Macondo) around the world, at an incredible cost, in case (or for when) a similar disaster