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E
ver known as an area of conflict, of opposing faiths, of opposing armed groups and fiercely
differing aims, Northern Ireland (NI) has often been seen as a part of the United Kingdom
which seemingly would never find a peaceful and progressive future. However, with the
Belfast Agreement of 1998 – known as the ‘Good Friday’ Agreement – compromises and
democratic arrangements were made, with the disarming of the varied paramilitary groups and
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their representation by associated Parties within the Northern Ireland Assembly , along with the
vast diminution of British Army troops within the area, meaning such a future didn’t simply seem
possible, it was felt to have arrived.
Now, nearly twenty years since the agreement, and in ‘Remain’ votes has shown its actual complexity in the
spite of various potential obstacles to the maintenance of questions raised with relation to the Irish border. As is
the agreement, such as the financial crisis of 2008 with evident, the referendum had never been expected to
associated economic downturn and the re-emergence of return this result; amateurly – in such a two horse race –
certain branches of paramilitary groups, the peace can be preparations for the second, ‘Leave’ option were
said to have been effectively kept. The Agreement has not seemingly absent, or given very little weight. The result
only reduced the vast fears of violence within the region now has been a very obvious lack of firm policy as
and directed at mainland UK, but, with the diminution of foundation for negotiating the UK’s withdrawal from the
formerly required security along the 300+ mile long NI- EU, and an equal lack of preparation for the questions
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Irish border, the four key principles of the EU - being arising about the Irish-NI border.
free movement of goods, services, labour and capital – The historic view of Britain’s immovable border being its
have been far easier to maintain. However, subsequent coastline is contradicted by the existence of this line
to the UK’s majority Leave vote in the Brexit drawn between Northern Ireland and the Republic of
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referendum , serious questions are emerging concerning Ireland. Hard or soft, it has stood since the independence
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the real long-term future of the agreement. of the Republic in 1922 and has been the major focus of
dispute between Ireland and the UK. After the Brexit vote,
Insecurities the calm given by the Good Friday agreement has begun
to crumble, as fears on both sides are rekindled; the
Fears are varied; a smooth and painless transition from potential for either the NI/Ireland border becoming hard
the EU principles to a post-Brexit bi-national agreement once more, with the re-confirmation of the North being
does not come to the fore as the most likely result, much an utterly separate state to the Republic, or the fears in
as the UK would wish it so. The broad questions in relation the North of the current soft border remaining, with a
to the UK and Europe concerning trade agreements, harder border emerging being between NI to the rest of
movement of peoples and goods, et al, which have been the UK, giving them a sense of impending isolation from,
raised and are currently being debated and bargained for, or desertion by the other members of the ‘United’
come to a head when they are viewed in relation to the Kingdom. Given the conflicts prior to Good Friday, this
border between the UK and the Irish Republic. The possibility of what the North may see as abandonment
apparent childish simplicity of the polarising ‘Leave’ or has scared the Protestant majority, with their fears being
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currently voiced, and used, by the D.U.P.
16 It might be noted that whilst the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) was 18 NI voted 55% Remain
firmly against the devolution, it was they and Sinn Fein who subsequently 19 In 1922 it was the ‘Free Irish State’, becoming the Republic of Ireland in
shared power in the Northern Ireland Assemby. ( 8 parties from across the 1948.
spectrum signed the agreement, but the DUP abstained.) 20 Currently the majority party in N.I. , holding 10 of 18 N.I. seats in
17 Those prior to the Good Friday Agreement (before difficulties in the Parliament; an amount often needed by the Conservative party to see
ratification of the Lisbon Treaty in 2008) were established within the 1957 through legislation, and therefore carrying a power far greater than the
Treaty of Rome, and reinforced by the Single European Act of 1986 and at numbers might suggest.
Maastricht in 1992.

