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        E
               ver known as an area of conflict, of opposing faiths, of opposing armed groups and fiercely
               differing aims, Northern Ireland (NI) has often been seen as a part of the United Kingdom
               which seemingly would never find a peaceful and progressive future. However, with the
        Belfast  Agreement  of  1998  –  known  as  the  ‘Good  Friday’  Agreement  –  compromises  and
        democratic arrangements were made, with the disarming of the varied paramilitary groups and
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        their representation by associated Parties within the Northern Ireland Assembly , along with the
        vast diminution of British Army troops within the area, meaning such a future didn’t simply seem
        possible, it was felt to have arrived.


        Now,  nearly  twenty  years  since  the  agreement,  and  in   ‘Remain’  votes  has  shown  its  actual  complexity  in  the
        spite of various potential obstacles to the maintenance of   questions raised with relation to the Irish border. As is
        the agreement, such as the financial crisis of 2008 with   evident,  the  referendum  had  never  been  expected  to
        associated economic downturn and the re-emergence of      return this result; amateurly – in such a two horse race –
        certain branches of paramilitary groups, the peace can be   preparations  for  the  second,  ‘Leave’  option  were
        said to have been effectively kept. The Agreement has not   seemingly absent, or given very little weight. The result
        only reduced the vast fears of violence within the region   now  has  been  a  very  obvious  lack  of  firm  policy  as
        and directed at mainland UK, but, with the diminution of   foundation for negotiating the UK’s withdrawal from the
        formerly required security along the 300+ mile long NI-   EU, and an equal lack of preparation for the questions
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        Irish border, the four key principles of the EU  - being   arising about the Irish-NI border.
        free movement of goods, services, labour and capital –    The historic view of Britain’s immovable border being its
        have been far easier to maintain. However, subsequent     coastline  is  contradicted  by  the  existence  of  this  line
        to  the  UK’s  majority  Leave  vote  in  the  Brexit     drawn  between  Northern  Ireland  and  the  Republic  of
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        referendum , serious questions are emerging concerning    Ireland. Hard or soft, it has stood since the independence
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        the real long-term future of the agreement.               of the Republic in 1922  and has been the major focus of
                                                                  dispute between Ireland and the UK. After the Brexit vote,
        Insecurities                                              the calm given by the Good Friday agreement has begun
                                                                  to  crumble,  as  fears  on  both  sides  are  rekindled;  the
        Fears are varied; a smooth and painless transition from   potential for either the NI/Ireland border becoming hard
        the EU principles to a post-Brexit bi-national agreement   once more, with the  re-confirmation of the North being
        does not come to the fore as the most likely result, much   an utterly separate state to the Republic, or the fears in
        as the UK would wish it so. The broad questions in relation   the North of the current soft border remaining, with a
        to  the  UK  and  Europe  concerning  trade  agreements,   harder border emerging being between NI to the rest of
        movement of peoples and goods, et al, which have been     the UK, giving them a sense of impending isolation from,
        raised and are currently being debated and bargained for,   or  desertion  by  the  other  members  of  the  ‘United’
        come to a head when they are viewed in relation to the    Kingdom. Given the conflicts prior to Good Friday, this
        border  between  the  UK  and  the  Irish  Republic.  The   possibility of what the North may see as abandonment
        apparent childish simplicity of the polarising ‘Leave’ or    has scared the Protestant majority, with their fears being
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                                                                  currently voiced, and used, by the D.U.P.




        16  It might be noted that whilst the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) was   18  NI voted 55% Remain
        firmly against the devolution, it was they and Sinn Fein who subsequently   19  In 1922 it was the ‘Free Irish State’, becoming the Republic of Ireland in
        shared power in the Northern Ireland Assemby. ( 8 parties from across the   1948.
        spectrum signed the agreement, but the DUP abstained.)    20  Currently the majority party in N.I. , holding 10 of 18 N.I. seats in
        17  Those prior to the Good Friday Agreement (before difficulties in the   Parliament; an amount often needed by the Conservative party to see
        ratification of the Lisbon Treaty in 2008) were established within the 1957   through legislation, and therefore carrying a power far greater than the
        Treaty of Rome, and reinforced by the Single European Act of 1986 and at   numbers might suggest.
        Maastricht in 1992.
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