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NewYeaarsEdition200912_june_july_2009.qxd 16/12/2009 2:32 PM Page 43 Russian Predicts the End of the USA 43 Russian Predicts the End of the USA 43 As if Things Weren't As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End Professor Predicts End of U.S. of U.S. In Moscow, Igor Panarin's Forecasts In Moscow, Igor Panarin's Forecasts Are All the Rage; America Are All the Rage; America 'Disintegrates' in 2010 'Disintegrates' in 2010 MOSCOW -- For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument -- that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. -- very seriously. Now he's found an eager audience: Russian state media. In recent weeks, he's been interviewed also been featured on the Kremlin's English- up to and including a civil war will follow. The as much as twice a day about his predictions. language propaganda channel, Russia Today. U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and "It's a record," says Prof. Panarin. "But I think Mr. Panarin's apocalyptic vision foreign powers will move in. the attention is going to grow even stronger." "reflects a very pronounced degree of anti- California will form the nucleus of what Prof. Panarin, 50 years old, is not a Americanism in Russia today," says Vladimir he calls "The Californian Republic," and will be fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean Pozner, a prominent TV journalist in Russia. part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas of the Russian Foreign Ministry's academy for "It's much stronger than it was in the Soviet will be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin Union." cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall receptions, lectures students, publishes books, Mr. Pozner and other Russian under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.- commentators and experts on the U.S. dismiss and New York will be part of an "Atlantic Russia relations. Mr. Panarin's predictions. "Crazy ideas are not America" that may join the European Union. But it's his bleak forecast for the U.S. usually discussed by serious people," says Canada will grab a group of Northern states that is music to the ears of the Kremlin, which Sergei Rogov, director of the government-run Prof. Panarin calls "The Central North in recent years has blamed Washington for Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies, who American Republic." Hawaii, he suggests, will everything from instability in the Middle East to thinks Mr. Panarin's theories don't hold water. be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska the global financial crisis. Mr. Panarin's views Mr. Panarin's résumé includes many will be subsumed into Russia. also fit neatly with the Kremlin's narrative that years in the Soviet KGB, an experience shared "It would be reasonable for Russia to lay Russia is returning to its rightful place on the by other top Russian officials. His office, in claim to Alaska; it was part of the Russian world stage after the weakness of the 1990s, downtown Moscow, shows his national pride, Empire for a long time." A framed satellite when many feared that the country would go with pennants on the wall bearing the emblem image of the Bering Strait that separates Alaska economically and politically bankrupt and of the FSB, the KGB's successor agency. It is from Russia like a thread hangs from his office break into separate territories. also full of statuettes of eagles; a double-headed wall. "It's not there for no reason," he says with A polite and cheerful man with a buzz eagle was the symbol of czarist Russia. a sly grin. cut, Mr. Panarin insists he does not dislike The professor says he began his career Interest in his forecast revived this fall Americans. But he warns that the outlook for in the KGB in 1976. In post-Soviet Russia, he when he published an article in Izvestia, one of them is dire. got a doctorate in political science, studied U.S. Russia's biggest national dailies. In it, he "There's a 55-45% chance right now that economics, and worked for FAPSI, then the reiterated his theory, called U.S. foreign debt "a disintegration will occur," he says. "One could Russian equivalent of the U.S. National pyramid scheme," and predicted China and rejoice in that process," he adds, poker-faced. Security Agency. He says he did strategy Russia would usurp Washington's role as a "But if we're talking reasonably, it's not the best forecasts for then-President Boris Yeltsin, global financial regulator. scenario -- for Russia." Though Russia would adding that the details are "classified." Americans hope President-elect Barack become more powerful on the global stage, he In September 1998, he attended a Obama "can work miracles," he wrote. "But says, its economy would suffer because it conference in Linz, Austria, devoted to when spring comes, it will be clear that there are currently depends heavily on the dollar and on information warfare, the use of data to get an no miracles." trade with the U.S. edge over a rival. It was there, in front of 400 The article prompted a question about Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass fellow delegates, that he first presented his the White House's reaction to Prof. Panarin's immigration, economic decline, and moral theory about the collapse of the U.S. in 2010. forecast at a December news conference. "I'll degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and "When I pushed the button on my have to decline to comment," spokeswoman the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of computer and the map of the United States Dana Perino said amid much laughter. June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will disintegrated, hundreds of people cried out in For Prof. Panarin, Ms. Perino's response break into six pieces -- with Alaska reverting to surprise," he remembers. He says most in the was significant. "The way the answer was Russian control. audience were skeptical. "They didn't believe phrased was an indication that my views are In addition to increasing coverage in me." being listened to very carefully," he says. state media, which are tightly controlled by the At the end of the presentation, he says The professor says he's convinced that Kremlin, Mr. Panarin's ideas are now being many delegates asked him to autograph copies people are taking his theory more seriously. widely discussed among local experts. He of the map showing a dismembered U.S. People like him have forecast similar presented his theory at a recent roundtable He based the forecast on classified data cataclysms before, he says, and been right. He discussion at the Foreign Ministry. The supplied to him by FAPSI analysts, he says. He cites French political scientist Emmanuel Todd. country's top international relations school has predicts that economic, financial and Mr. Todd is famous for having rightly forecast hosted him as a keynote speaker. During an demographic trends will provoke a political and the demise of the Soviet Union -- 15 years appearance on the state TV channel Rossiya, the social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets beforehand. "When he forecast the collapse of station cut between his comments and TV tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold the Soviet Union in 1976, people laughed at footage of lines at soup kitchens and crowds of funds from the federal government and him," says Prof. Panarin. homeless people in the U.S. The professor has effectively secede from the union. Social unrest