Page 78 - BB_Textbook

RECEPTIVE GRADE 11
“Global Warming’s Terrifying New Math”
Bill McKibben, Rolling Stone (19 July 2012). Adapted from the original.
As you listen to this article, take notes, and prepare to explain the author’s three main numbers and related concerns.
Three numbers—2, 565, and 2,795—add up to global catastrophe.
2° Celsius
The Copenhagen Accord (2009) agreed that the increase in global temperature must be below two degrees Celsius. “Deep cuts in global emissions are required.” Yet so far, we’ve raised the average temperature of the planet by about 0.8 degrees.
565 gigatons
Scientists estimate that humans can pour roughly 565 more gigatons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by 2050 and have “reasonable” hope to stay below a two-degree increase. “Reasonable” here means four chances in five, like playing Russian roulette with a six-shooter. Since we’ve increased the Earth’s temperature by 0.8 degrees already, we are nearly halfway to the target.
2,795 gigatons
This number is the scariest of all. It describes the amount of carbon already contained in the proven coal and oil and gas reserves of the fossil-fuel companies and countries that act like fossil-fuel companies (for example, Kuwait, Venezuela, or Saudi Arabia). It’s the fuel we are already planning to burn. This new number—2,795—is five times higher than 565.
Think of two degrees Celsius as the legal drinking limit – equivalent to the 0.08 blood-alcohol level for drinking and driving. The 565 gigatons is how many drinks you could drink and stay legal—say, drinking six beers. But what about 2,795 gigatons? That’s like 36 cans of beer. And the fossil-fuel industry has already opened and poured these cans, though consuming them is far more than the drinking limit.
Today, the oil, coal and gas that companies and countries have already bought-and-sold is five times more than what climate scientists think is safe to burn. Using our analogy, we need to un-pour 31 cans of beer to get within the legal limit.
Yes, these fuels are still physically underground. But they are already economically aboveground. Companies borrow money against these proven assets. Countries base their budgets on already-sold fossil fuels.
You can have a healthy fossil-fuel balance sheet, or a healthy planet. But you cannot have both. Do the math: 2,795 is five times 565. This is global warming’s terrifying new math.
aboveground
assets blood-alcohol level catastrophe
Celsius Copenhagen Accord
VOCABULARY equivalent
fossil-fuel compa- nies
gigatons
legal drinking limit proven
reasonable Russian roulette scariest six-shooter underground
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