Page 37 - Food Outlook

TRADE
Figure 5. Rice imports by region
Trade growth to decelerate in 2018
After rebounding by 8 percent in 2017, world trade in
rice is forecast to expand by a mere 1 percent in 2018
to reach 45.4 million tonnes. All of the expected growth would rely on larger imports by countries in Asia, where 21.9 million tonnes are forecast to be imported on aggregate, up 3 percent from 2017. Within the region, purchases by China (Mainland) are envisaged to remain sizeable, at 5.9 million tonnes, given the persistently large differentials between Chinese prices and international quotations. On the other hand, the need to replenish stockpiles may encourage Indonesia, the Philippines
and Saudi Arabia to step up imports next year, even if purchases in Indonesia and the Philippines will likely depend on policy decisions. In Indonesia, the planned expansion of the voucher-based food assistance programme (Bantuan Pangan Non Tunai) could diminish the need to rely on foreign supplies for in-kind rice distribution in the event that domestic procurement targets are not met as in
2017. In the Philippines, final decisions regarding the rice tariffication process are still pending, while announced plans to raise public domestic procurement five-fold could curb state purchases from abroad. Barring major setbacks, production recoveries could instead permit Bangladesh and Sri Lanka to slightly lower their 2018 imports to
1.1 million and 450 000 tonnes, respectively.
Rice imports by Africa are forecast to remain close to the 2017 high of 15.6 million tonnes, sustained by
larger purchases by Burkina Faso, Guinea Bissau, Mauritania, Togo and, in particular, Nigeria. In the latter, despite expectations of a larger domestic crop, some 2.9 million tonnes may still be required from abroad to meet demand from a fast-expanding population and to quell persistently high domestic prices. At the same time, a number of countries are expected to have sufficient local availabilities to reduce reliance on imports next year, namely Benin, Mali, Senegal, Sierra Leone and, to a lesser extent, Kenya and Madagascar.
Deliveries to Latin America and the Caribbean are forecast to contract by 5 percent in 2018 to 3.9 million tonnes. Much of this decrease would be on account of Brazil, where large carry-in stocks and less attractive prices in neighbouring countries could lower imports to more normal levels of
670 000 tonnes. Ample availabilities from good crops
and large 2017 purchases are also seen to lower imports
by Cuba, Haiti, Mexico and Peru, more than offsetting increases in Bolivia, Costa Rica and Venezuela.
In the other regions, firm demand for fragrant and broken rice is expected to keep imports by the EU at an
Figure 6. Rice exports by the major exporters
million tonnes, milled eq.
Near East Asia Lat. America & Carr.
Others
Far East Asia Africa
forecast 2018 forecast
0 5 10 15 20
million tonnes, milled eq. 12
9
6
3
0
India
Thailand Viet Nam Pakistan
USA Others
2017 forecast forecast
Figure 7. World rice trade and FAO all rice price index
million tonnes, milled eq.
2002-2004=100
300 250 200 150 100 50
2017 2018 0
f’cast f’cast
48 40 32 24 16
8
0 2009
2011
2013
2015
Exports
FAO All Rice
Price Index*
* Jan.-Oct. average for 2017
FOOD OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 2017
31
RICE
2018
2017