Page 53 - Food Outlook

Figure 12. Meal/cake imports by region or major country (in protein equivalent and including the meal contained in seed imports)
Figure 13. Meal/cake exports by major exporters (in protein equivalent and including the meal contained in seed exports)
million tonnes 30
20
10
0
2016/17 estimate 2017/18 forecast
India Paraguay USA
Argentina
Brazil
Canada
million tonnes
40 35 30 25 20 15 10
5 0
2009/10
2011/12
China (total)
Europe
Africa
2013/14 2015/16
2017/18
f’cast
Asia excl. China (total) Latin America
United States & Canada
especially in Thailand, Pakistan, the Republic of Korea, the Philippines and Viet Nam. As for developed countries, in the EU, the world’s second largest buyer, imports would record only a small increase, as domestic supply gains would help meet local requirements.
Export growth is expected to concentrate in the United States, Canada and, providing current production forecasts materialize, also in Brazil and Argentina −
the world’s four largest suppliers. Compared with last season, sales by the United States and Canada are projected to expand by, respectively, 2.0 million tonnes and 1.2 million tonnes (expressed in product weight
and including the meal contained in seed shipments), supported by bumper crops as well as, in the case of the
United States, largest-ever opening stocks. South America’s export expansion is pegged at 4.2 million tonnes, divided about equally between Argentina and Brazil. In both countries, the rise in shipments would rest on the release of domestic stocks. Similar to last season, Brazil, the
United States and Argentina, the world’s top three suppliers of soybean meal, can be expected to strongly compete for market share. With regard to other suppliers, deliveries by Paraguay, Uruguay and the Russian Federation could remain about unchanged, whereas the contraction in sales forecast for India, Ukraine and Australia mainly reflects poor domestic crops. In the case of India, soy processors continue to face difficulties in exporting soymeal at internationally competitive prices.
FOOD OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 2017
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OILCROPS, OILS AND MEALS