Page 71 - Food Outlook

NOK 60 (USD 7.56) per kg. In the wild salmon sector, meanwhile, total catches are expected to come in above harvest but below the last equivalent year, 2015. On the market side, while consumer sensitivity to price hikes has dampened import growth in the more mature markets of the United States, the EU and Japan, the share of global salmon import volume and value claimed by urbanizing middle-class demographics in developing countries continues to increase. The flattening price trend, if it continues, together with product innovation focused on portion sizing and convenience, will be key in preventing consumers from making a long-term shift towards alternative protein sources, particularly in the larger, established markets.
SMALL PELAGICS
The supply outlook for small pelagics in 2018 is for an increase in global landings, mainly driven by higher landings of Peruvian anchoveta, although the ICES has recommended cuts in the North Atlantic mackerel and herring quotas. For the 2018 mackerel quota, ICES has recommended a 35 percent cut to 550 948 tonnes, and for herring, the recommendation is for a 15 percent cut
to 546 472 tonnes. There has been speculation that, as a result of global warming, Atlantic mackerel stocks would move farther north in the Barents Sea. However, while some movement has been observed, the mackerel have not yet moved as far north as expected and the autumn mackerel season started with good catches, pushing prices lower. Total trade volumes of mackerel and herring are expected to go up, but there have been and will likely continue to be shifts in the respective shares of the main suppliers.
FISHMEAL AND FISH OIL
Global supply of fishmeal is expected to be more stable
than in previous years in the first half of 2018, due to better climatic conditions and higher projected pelagic catches. Prices are likely to follow an overall downward trend but with seasonal fluctuations. A quota of 2.8 million tonnes for the first anchoveta fishing season in Peru, the highest since 2011, ended with a total catch of 2.37 million tonnes in 2017, representing 85 percent of the total allowable catch (TAC) and clearly giving buyers the advantage in price negotiations. The outlook also looks positive for the second fishing season in Peru, set to begin in late 2017. However, the overall downward trend of Peruvian fishmeal price resulting from more plentiful supply will be softened in the longer term by continued demand growth, particularly from China.
Figure 8. Prices of fish oil/fishmeal in Europe
USD per tonne
3 200 2 400 1 600
800 0
Aug Feb Aug Feb Aug Feb Aug Feb Aug Feb Aug
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Fish oil Fishmeal Source: Oil World
Table 7. Norwegian exports of small pelagics (by product and destination)
CRAB
The Russian Federation Far East has seen increased
quotas for 2017, and supplies are expected to improve. Russian Federation Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) crab production appears to have been curbed
and total Russian Federation Far East crab catches are expected to reach about 73 500 tonnes for the year. In the United States, the coming months should provide strong supplies from California and possible declining prices for dungeness crab. However, snow crab prices have been high and king crab prices even higher. International trade in crab has declined a bit lately, but the Russian Federation is expecting to export more moving into 2018, especially to East Asia where demand is strong.
2013
China 9.8 Turkey 4.9 Belarus 1.1
2014 2015 2016 2017
Jan-June (thousand tonnes)
FROZEN WHOLE
Other countries
Subtotal
Ukraine
Egypt
Lithuania Other countries Subtotal
43.2 51.3 55.5
59.1 69.9 73.2
15.7 13.5 6.9 9.4 2.8 9.6 10.5 13.3 5.5 50.3 50.6 22.2 86.0 80.1 44.2
12.0
6.2 9.4
22.4 32.4
58.3 67.8 157.3 160.9
Total 145.0
Source: Statistics Norway
150.0 117.4
13.0 7.7 5.2 7.8 0.4 2.1
9.7 21.3
17.8 16.3
9.2 4.8 6.2 80.0 56.3 99.0 93.1
4.5
FROZEN FILLETS
9.7
FOOD OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 2017
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MILK AND MILK PRODUCTS