Page 175 - Climate Change and Food Systems

chapter 5: climate change impact on key crops in africa: using crop models and general equilibrium models to bound the predictions
table 4
Average change in annual rainfall (mm), climate of 2000-2050
Country/Region
CNR
CSI
ECH
MIR
Country/Region
CNR
CSI
ECH
MIR
East Africa
32
-7
39
100
West Africa
30
-23
-1
22
Sudan
Ethiopia
Eritrea
Kenya
Tanzania
20
72
37
64
25
10 37
-35 41
3 38
26 47
31 11
-20 64
-43 64
-63 10
-57 1
20 -22 -57 -81
-17 -104
-53 -54
51 -94
-54 -88
70 Benin
141 Cape Verde
67 Gambia
184 Mauritania
214 Burkina Faso
153 Cote d’Ivoire
61 Ghana
197 Guinea
209 Guinea-Bissau
14 Liberia
Mali
-89 Niger
-9 Nigeria
-161 Senegal
-54 Sierra Leone
11 -89 45 49
-3 -4 -12 12
24 -20 -33 67
2 -7 -12 6
46 -46 -16 114
31 -38 25 -127
2 -103 25 -54
46 -45 -44 -12
48 -35 -29 83
14 72 22 -236
Uganda -53
D. R. Congo 55
Rwanda 2
Burundi -20
Madagascar -62 South Africa 9
Botswana 19
Lesotho -15
Swaziland -9
Namibia 32
Angola 48
Malawi 29
Zambia 40
Zimbabwe -3
Mozambique 5
28 -12 -18
47 5 -2
50 -57 35
14 -20 -46
28 12 17
39
75
28
36
-84
-21
Southern Africa
24
-28
-82
-2
-10 Togo -10 -120 48
-57 -74 -28
12 -56 191
12 -68 123
22 -112 28
18 -74 49
Source: Authors’ calculations based on
Notes: All values are based on the A1B
economic growth, a population that peaks mid-century and the development of new and efficient technologies, along with a balanced use of energy sources; CNR is an abbreviation for CNRM-CM3, which is a GCM from the National Meteoro- logical Research Centre–Climate Model 3; CSI is an abbreviation for CSIRO, which is a climate model developed at the Australia Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation; ECH is an abbreviation for ECHAM 5, which is a fifth-generation climate model developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (Hamburg); GCM = general circulation model; MIR is an abbreviation for MIROC, which is a GCM and is short for the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, developed bythe University of Tokyo Center for Climate System Research.
Generally, the models suggest that East Africa will become wetter and Southern Africa will become drier, while the results for West Africa are mixed.
2.2 Temperature
In all the models, temperature is projected to increase, but by different amounts across models. The distribution of temperature in the climate of 1950-2000 is shown in Figure 4, which indicates the mean daily maximum temperature for the
warmest month. As expected, temperatures are higher moving northwards across the Sahelian zone towards the Sahara. Coastal areas tend to be cooler, especially along the Mediterranean Sea, but also quite noticeably along the Atlantic Coast from Southern Africa through Central Africa to
the southern coast of West Africa. Highlands are noticeably cooler.
Figure 5 shows the changes in mean daily maximum temperature for the warmest month according to each of the four GCMs used in the analysis. Temperature changes by country and region are shown in Table 5.
Jones, Thornton, and Heinke (2009)
SRES scenerio, which is a greenhouse gas emissions scenario that assumes fast
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