Page 180 - Climate Change and Food Systems

climate change and food systems: global assessments and implications for food security and trade
figure 7
Change (%) in rainfed maize yield for East Africa due to climate change, 2050, A1B scenario
Source: Authors
Notes: Left to right: results for the CNRM, CSIRO, ECHAM, and MIROC GCMs
Baseline area lost
Yield lost > 25% of baseline
Yield lost 5% to 25% of baseline Yield change within 5% of baseline Yield gain 5% to 25% of baseline Yield gain > 25% of baseline
New area gained
that temperature has risen to a point that an area that might have been too cold to produce the crop will now be sufficiently warm. This latter possibility is generally found in higher elevations.
While climate opportunities may present truly good opportunities, both to farmers and to society, some of these areas may not be without additional challenges. For example, some of these areas
may be in protected forests or game reserves or on slopes of hills or mountains, and what might
be a climate opportunity could also be a potential tourism or environmental disaster.
These areas may also present fresh avenues
for social conflict if climate migration induces
people of one ethnicity to move into an area traditionally occupied by people of another ethnicity. Furthermore, ethnicity aside, these areas might previously have been considered commons, or even privately owned but unused land, and new settlers might cause property rights conflicts to arise in cases where laws are not explicit or easily enforced.
All of the possibilities demonstrated in the climate productivity change maps developed
from crop modelling suggest several avenues for policy-makers to consider, depending on what the
analysis shows and on existing legal and social structures.
If climate hotspots are identified, some kind of intervention would likely improve the outcome for the people living in those areas. Some possibilities include:
• Investment in agricultural research, to develop new varieties of crops currently grown, identify alternative crops that are acceptable to the farmers and their families or develop new farming techniques for the area that will help farmers to continue to grow their current crop (e.g., small-scale water harvesting in areas that will be affected by declining precipitation).
• Coordination between agricultural research and extension and advisory services, to help make farmers aware of any technological solutions developed.
• Support for developing rural enterprises in the affected area to engage farmers in new approaches for income-generating activities.
• Assistance to farmers moving to a more suitable location;
• And, in some cases, investment in irrigation.
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