Page 178 - Climate Change and Food Systems

climate change and food systems: global assessments and implications for food security and trade
table 5
Average change (oC) in mean daily maximum temperature for the warmest month, 2000-2050
Country/Region
CNR
CSI
ECH
MIR
Country/Region
CNR
CSI
ECH
MIR
East Africa
2.1
1.3
2.1
1.5
West Africa
2.2
1.5
2.3
2.0
Sudan
Ethiopia
Eritrea
Kenya
Tanzania
Uganda
D. R. Congo
Rwanda
Burundi
Madagascar South Africa
Botswana
Lesotho
Swaziland
Namibia
Angola
Malawi
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Mozambique
2.2 1.2 2.2
1.9 1.4 2.0
2.1 1.2 2.1
1.8 1.2 1.9
2.1 1.1 2.1
2.1 1.3 2.1
2.0 1.4 2.2
2.1 1.3 2.1
2.2 1.3 2.2
2.0 1.3 1.7 2.0 1.8 2.4
2.4 2.0 3.2
2.1 1.6 2.3
1.8 1.3 2.0
2.3 1.9 2.8
1.7 Benin
1.3 Cape Verde
1.4 Gambia
1.1 Mauritania
1.2 Burkina Faso
1.1 Cote d’Ivoire
1.6 Ghana
1.5 Guinea
1.5 Guinea-Bissau
2.1 Liberia
Mali
2.0 Niger
2.0 Nigeria
1.8 Senegal
1.5 Sierra Leone
2.2 Togo
2.1 1.6
1.8 0.8
2.0 1.3
2.4 1.5
2.1 1.6
2.2 1.4
2.2 1.5
2.2 1.5
2.0 1.4
2.2 1.2
2.3 1.7
2.2 1.5
2.1 1.4
2.1 1.4
2.2 1.3
2.2 1.6
2.0 1.4
1.6 1.8
2.1 1.6
2.4 2.8
2.4 1.4
2.0 1.1
1.9 1.2
2.4 1.4
2.1 1.4
1.8 1.4
2.6 2.4
2.4 2.3
2.0 1.3
2.3 1.7
2.0 1.4
1.9 1.4
Southern Africa
2.2
1.7
2.7
1.9
2.2 1.6 2.7 2.1
2.1 1.4 2.5 1.6
2.2 1.4 2.9 1.6
2.3 1.7 2.8 1.7
2.0 1.4 2.2 1.7
Source: Authors’ calculations based on Jones, Thornton, and Heinke (2009)
Notes: All values are based on the A1B SRES scenerio, which is a greenhouse gas emissions scenario that assumes
fast economic growth, a population that peaks mid-century and the development of new and efficient technologies,
along with a balanced use of energy sources; CNR is an abbreviation for CNRM-CM3, which is a GCM from the National Meteorological Research Centre–Climate Model 3; CSI is an abbreviation for CSIRO, which is a climate model developed at the Australia Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation; ECH is an abbreviation for ECHAM 5, which is a fifth-generation climate model developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (Hamburg); GCM = general circulation model; MIR is an abbreviation for MIROC, which is a GCM and is short for the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, developed by the University of Tokyo Center for Climate System Research
onto the map forming a collection of squares of 10 x 10 kilometres. Yield was computed for the values at the centre of each square.
3.1 Rainfed maize
Rainfed maize is one of the crops grown widely across all three regions of Africa that were considered in the monographs. It will be the main focus of this paper.
East Africa
Figure 6 shows the rainfed maize areas in East Africa, using IFPRI’s Spatial Production Allocation Model (SPAM) dataset for 2000. SPAM takes agricultural statistical information from national datasets, using provinces, districts, or any other level of aggregation that is available. It then uses geographic datasets
on land cover, irrigation, roads and cities, along with national expert information on production technologies, to distribute agricultural activities, including estimates of yields and areas harvested.
158