Page 289 - Climate Change and Food Systems

chapter 9: an assessment of global banana production and suitability under climate change scenarios
table 3
Total area (in km2) for three categories of suitability for banana currently and with climate change
Category
Current
2030
2050
2070
Not Suitable
Subtropical
Tropical
141 224 300
41 201 350
43 189 025
134 962 475
40 346 450
46 952 150
figure 1
132 472 650
40 194 675
49 593 750
130 299 200
39 829 175
52 132 700
Current global distribution, showing unsuitable, subtropical and tropical regions for banana
the rainfall regimes (represented by the first digit in Table 5), there is a decline in the areas with cooler temperatures (represented by second
digit of 1 (13-18 °C)) and an increase in higher temperatures (represented by second digit of 2 or 3 (18-24 °C or >24 °C)). Table 5 also highlights a new category, 141, to identify those areas which will be subject to excessively high temperatures (>35 °C for at least three months per year).
These areas first appear in 2050 and increase substantially by 2070, although they make up only a small percentage of area suitable for banana.
This broad overview of suitability based on temperature and rainfall indicates that lands suitable for banana production will continue
to be widely available for banana-growing in
the subtropics and tropics even with climate change. However, there will be an increase in climatic zones with higher temperatures and
the appearance of areas not suitable due to extended periods of extremely high temperatures. This suggests that if temperatures continue
to increase beyond 2070, more areas in the tropics may be lost for banana production due to excessively high temperatures.
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