Page 290 - Climate Change and Food Systems

climate change and food systems: global assessments and implications for food security and trade
table 4
Agroclimatic zones
<900 mm (1)
900-1500mm (2)
> 3 dry months (1)
< 3 dry months (2)
> 3 dry months (1)
< 3 dry months (2)
13-18 °C (1)
111
13-18 °C (1)
112
13-18 °C (1)
311
13-18 °C (1)
312
18-24 °C (2)
121
18-24 °C (2)
122
18-24 °C (2)
321
18-24 °C (2)
322
>24 °C (3)
131
>24 °C (3)
132
>24 °C (3)
331
>24 °C (3)
332
>35 °C (4)
141
>35 °C (4)
142
>35 °C (4)
241
>35 °C (4)
342
13-18 °C (1)
211
13-18 °C (1)
212
13-18 °C (1)
411
13-18 °C (1)
412
18-24 °C (2)
221
18-24 °C (2)
222
18-24 °C (2)
421
18-24 °C (2)
422
>24 °C (3)
231
>24 °C (3)
232
>24 °C (3)
431
>24 °C (3)
432
>35 °C (4)
241
>3 5°C (4)
242
>35 °C (4)
441
>35 °C (4)
442
<900 mm (1)
900-1500mm (2)
1500-2500 mm (3)
>2500 mm (4)
1500-2500 mm (3)
>2500 mm (4)
4. Climate change projections for 24 banana-growing areas in Latin America, Africa and Asia
To further explore the implications of climate change for banana-growing, we identified 24
sites where banana is an important crop, located in contrasting climatic zones in Latin America, Africa and Asia (Table 7). Eight sites were chosen from each major continent, with no more than
two sites per country. These sites represent 13 of the climatic zones in Table 5. They include seven subtropical sites, five tropical highland sites, six wet/dry tropical sites and six wet tropical sites (see Figures 3-6 for the different groupings and their projected climate change). For each site, changes in average temperature and monthly rainfall were projected for 2030, 2050 and 2070, using data
from the CCAFS database portal (Ramirez and Jarvis, 2008) with a resolution of five kilometres. Projections assume scenario A2 and an average of 20 GCMs.
The subtropical sites (Figure 3) show a marked difference between a cooler season when minimum temperatures are as low as 10 °C and
a high sun season with elevated temperatures. Two sites have extremely high temperatures in
the summer season – Salta, Argentina and Uttar Pradesh, India – with temperatures ranging above 40 °C, especially for 2050 and 2070. Rainfall
is highly variable for the different sites. Some
sites have highly uniform rainfall distribution from month to month, while others receive a major part of the annual rainfall in only a few months. The projections for the next decades show little major change in monthly rainfall distribution.
For the tropical highland sites (Figure 4), temperatures are quite uniform throughout the year, except for the site in China, which is a
270