Page 326 - Climate Change and Food Systems

climate change and food systems: global assessments and implications for food security and trade
figure 9
Net trade in rice in 2050, India
Source: AgMIP scenario results
Source: AgMIP scenario results
climate change impact.5 While all models simulate reportable impacts on net trade (with varying
directions and magnitudes) associated with climate change, with the exception of a few cases, the models projected no change in the net trade status in 2050 of the key exporting and importing countries and commodities considered in Figures 5 through 12.
Most models have projected that climate change will have some negative effect on coarse grains and oilseeds exports from the United States of America (Scenarios S3 to S6 relative to Scenario S1, Figures 5 and 6). However, according to results from the crop models used in the AgMIP study, crop yields in the United States of America are
figure 10
Net trade in wheat in 2050, sub-Saharan Africa
5
It is important to note that, although the implications of the socio-economic and climate change drivers for production and trade have been identified and analysed separately, the model results for the climate scenarios indeed represent outcomes of interactions between these two sets of drivers. In addition, impacts of climate change on GDP and/or population growth were not simulated, given the way the underlying scenarios were modelled. However, the models do generate impacts on food prices and consumption under various scenarios; these have been discussed extensively in von Lampe et al. (2014) and are therefore not repeated here.
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