Page 327 - Climate Change and Food Systems

chapter 10: the role of international trade under a changing climate: insights from global economic modelling
figure 11
Net trade in rice in 2050, sub-Saharan Africa
Source: AgMIP scenario results
figure 12
Net trade in coarse grains in 2050, sub-Saharan Africa
Source: AgMIP scenario results
generally less affected by climate change than
in other countries/regions, and consequently the impacts on the net exports from the United States of America are also projected to be relatively
small, with the exception of GCAM and IMPACT models for coarse grains, and GLOBIOM and GCAM models for oilseeds. According to most models, projected impact of climate change on Chinese trade in coarse grains and oilseeds will
be a reduction in net imports (Scenarios S3 to S6 relative to Scenario S1, Figures 7 and 8). A majority of models suggest somewhat increased import dependency for rice and wheat in sub-Saharan
Africa (Scenarios S3 to S6 relative to Scenario S1, Figures 10 to 11).
The error bars in Figures 5 to 12 reflect the projected minimum and maximum net trade across Scenarios S3 to S6. All the PE models, apart from MAgPIE, show far larger variations in net trade across the various climate change scenarios than the GE models. This may be linked to the ways these two types of model specify international trade.
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