Page 25 - Ecuador's Banana Sector under Climate Change

chapter 1: overview: a methodological framework - integrating climate adaptation and sustainability into agricultural sectors
locally available changing climate parameters that apply, as much as possible,
to the crop that is analysed. The focus of this climate impact assessment will be dictated as much by the regional location of the agricultural system as by the agronomy and the agro-ecology of the crop. The biophysical analysis may also stress specific issues that are critical to the production system, such as water hydrology (in terms of future water demand and supply) and/or land classification. When relevant, the analysis also may emphasize the biotic dynamics of climate change on the crop, especially in those situations where pests and disease
are important features of the cropping system or where the changing climate
is thought to introduce new biotic dynamics in the future, which will alter the management and the productivity of the system.
Finally, the biophysical analysis of the agricultural system should include an environmental assessment that includes the carbon cycle and carbon footprint
of the current production system and the implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for mitigation. It is important to recognize that the specific focus of the biophysical analysis should be dictated by the local climate, the crop agronomy and the associated management system, as well as by the location agro- ecology, including the biotic and abiotic aspects. Existing cropping systems and management (the latter of which is tied to economics) are as much factors as are those of pure environmental and ecological considerations.
4.3 Socio-institutional analysis
Adaptation options can be technically possible and economically viable; however, they still need to be socially feasible and acceptable. The socio-institutional analysis is the critical third dimension that assures the link to policy processes.
It is, however, highly context-specific. The economic analysis of the agricultural system already will offer pointers to the critical dimensions for focus. Cost analysis and value distribution will suggest the social implications of the economic systems with regard to the return to labour, employment and incomes. Management systems also will highlight the social issues relating to input access, the role of gender and the significance of youth in the production system. Land and water considerations, which are inputs into the economic analysis, will have social implications in terms of access, management and investments. In examining the scope for adaptation and building resilience, a review of social coherence, modes of decision-making and organization structures is important to factor in.
Lastly, an analysis of the enabling environment should be made in terms
of infrastructure, investments and capacity. This will require an evaluation
of governance systems, participatory processes and the extent of inclusive decision-making in order to facilitate the adaptation of improved techniques to enhance productivity, as well as climate-adaptation and emissions saving when relevant. To the extent that adaptation strategies and policies are introduced or facilitated, adaptation technologies will require greater adherence by men and women farmers - the ultimate decision-makers. This will require a thorough socio- institutional analysis of the agricultural system within the local physical, economic and institutional environments.
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