Page 26 - Ecuador's Banana Sector under Climate Change

ecuador’s banana sector under climate change: an economic and biophysical assessment to promote a sustainable and climate-compatible strategy
4.4 Interlinkage of the three dimensions
While each of the three main analyses (economic, biophysical and socio- institutional) have a core set of issues to be examined in relation to the sector under examination, there are important linkages that cut across the three dimensions and serve as feeding loops. For example, a biophysical analysis of the impact of climate change on water, temperature and soil conditions (biophysical) directly feeds into resource use, affecting economic input use efficiency which,
in turn, will affect the cost structure (economic) and which, ultimately, will affect the return to labour and incomes (social). Likewise, when climate change is expected to reduce water availability, this will in turn change the economics of the agricultural system (through productivity, water efficiency and related cost), which may require policy decisions for water resource management and reallocation across uses (social).
Another example is when climate change (through temperature and rainfall changes) alters the dynamics of pests (biophysical), thus altering the productivity of the system. This, in turn will change the input use intensity and, hence, the cost-benefit structure (economic) with social implications in terms of income and health (chemical and pesticide use). It will also implicate policy and governance (socio-institutional). Clearly, the identification of the linkage between the three dimensions is critical for a coherent and interconnected assessment. It is necessary to provide the evidence upon which an adaptation strategy can be built upon.
There are two key prerequisites for the successful implementation of this analytical framework. First, it is necessary to have as much local expertise as possible at all levels and at all times. Second, it is critical to make use of available local data, information and knowledge. These not only will ensure more relevant outcomes but they will facilitate local ownership of the process - essential to ultimately enact and achieve transformation. This may not always proceed smoothly in the context of developing countries, however, where data is often
not available or is not easily accessible or usable. Moreover, national research data may often be lacking, which will necessitate capacity building from external sources. The two mentioned prerequisites, however, are important and should be followed whenever possible.
5. Stage 2: Policy formulation
The above description of the proposed analytical framework provides the evidence that is necessary to initiate the second stage (policy formulation). This, by definition, is a process that should be led by multistakeholders to focus on the issues and frame them by using the insights and evidence obtained from
the initial analyses. Attention should be placed on identifying and introducing a climate-compatible strategy or policy that is tailored to the agricultural sector under evaluation, but which is in line with a broader national policy and cross- sectoral climate change strategy. The process of climate adaptation also requires synergies that are horizontal (across ministries and government agencies) and vertical (between public and private sectors, especially between government
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