Page 67 - Ecuador's Banana Sector under Climate Change

chapter 3: climate change in ecuador and its impact on banana crops: an overview
Figure 13 IPCC temperature forecasts for Amazonia
Forecast increase in oC for 2080-2099 relative to 1980-1999
6 5 4 3 2 1 0
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Source: IPCC (2007). P. 894
compared to Central America, the Caribbean and the Philippines which are exposed to tropical storms and cyclones.
Whether or not global climate change will increase the risk of tropical cyclones is a topic of ongoing popular and scientific debate. With regard to tropical cyclones, it is difficult to distinguish the weather from the climate, where climate is the long-term normal pattern of the weather and the weather is the hour- to-hour, day-to-day and year-to-year realization of the climate. Weather varies around the climate average. While temperature and the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) have had a long history of research, the accuracy of tropical storm observations only extends as far back as a few decades. Observations have,
so far, been limited to major storms that have struck populated areas and the strength of the storms has not been consistently measured. As a result, there
is a short series of observations relating to the relatively infrequent and variable phenomenon of cyclones. The number of recent Category 5 (strong) tropical cyclones (e.g. Mitch in 1998; Katrina, Rita, Wilma and Typhoon Pablo (Bopha)
in 2012) has established the view that tropical storms are growing stronger and more frequent.19 The data, however, do not support this, since the recent spate of destructive storms is not inconsistent with the longer-term frequency of tropical cyclones (Solow and Moore, 2002; Peduzzi et al., 2012).
Looking forward, physical climate models predict that higher global temperatures may reduce the probability of tropical cyclones. Cyclones that do develop, however, will be - on average - stronger.20
19 Hurricane Sandy’s impact on the East Coast of the United States in 2012 added to the perception of a stronger trend but Sandy was, in fact, a Category 2 storm and, thus, was relatively weak and well within the normal range of tropical storms for the North Atlantic. It was highly destructive because
its path crossed densely developed coastal areas. There is an upward trend in the economic losses caused by tropical storms but this is due, primarily, to more development in vulnerable coastal areas rather than the increasing severity of the storms. Higher sea levels also contribute to the risk of flood damage associated with tropical storms.
20 The definitive assessment is IPCC (2012):158-163. See also Knutson et al. (2010) and World Bank (2013):74-75, and 93-94.
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