Page 69 - Ecuador's Banana Sector under Climate Change

chapter 3: climate change in ecuador and its impact on banana crops: an overview
Figure 14 Increased uncertainty
Same mean Twice the variance
Fatter right tail
Extreme - Mean Extreme +
Source: IPCC (2007). Pg. 894
National Environment Policy, the country has experienced sustained increases in temperature; changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events (droughts, floods); changes in the hydrological regime,; and the retreat of glaciers.
The National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (INAMHI) in Ecuador monitored the national temperatures in 1998, 2002 and 2007 and reported increases in the minimum, maximum and average temperatures around the country, with some exceptions in certain geographical areas. The magnitude
of temperature change varied according to local climate characteristics, such
as the proximity to the sea, topography, among others. In terms of rain, the INAMHI reported that the annual amount of precipitation between 1960 and 2006 has varied between regions, with a tendency towards an increase in areas of the Sierra (mountain areas) and the coast, especially the coastal areas of the provinces of El Oro, Guayas, Santa Elena and Manabí. Limited information exists, however, for the Amazon region. On average, annual precipitation increased by 33 percent in the coastal region and by 8 percent in the inter-Andean region.
In recent years, extreme events have intensified, with floods and droughts lasting for short and long periods and causing economic and environmental damage. A study by INAMHI22 revealed a propensity for an increased number of consecutive dry days in the central regions and persistent periods of rain in the northern Ecuadorian coast and the foothills of the Andes. The study also showed that the area of Manabí is prone to a shortage and an excess of precipitation (INAMHI).
Annual loss in economic terms, in relation to climate-related events, highlights the vulnerability of Ecuador to climate change. In the past decade, Ecuador
has suffered an economic loss of more than USD 4 billion from droughts alone. This high exposure has increased the vulnerability of key economic sectors,
22 The study “Climate Information for Hydrometeorological Hazards in the Coastal Provinces of Ecuador” applied RClimDex software and calculated various climate indices over 72 seasons (unpublished).
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