Page 7 - Ecuador's Banana Sector under Climate Change

4.2.1 Temperature 57 4.2.2 Precipitation 59 4.2.3 Disease 59
5. Summary 60
CHAPTER 4:
ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON BANANA PRODUCTION AND SUITABILITY IN ECUADOR, AND GENERAL ASSESSMENT OF GLOBAL BANANA TRENDS UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS 63
1. Introduction 64
2. Projected impact of climate change and weather variability on the levels of productivity and disease 65
2.1 Export banana production areas of Ecuador 65
2.2 Projected changes in climate in principal export banana production
areas to 2070 68
2.2.1 Estimation of banana GDD and TDU 71
2.2.2 Estimation of water deficit 72
2.2.3 Monthly potential evapotranspiration 72
2.2.4 Actual evapotranspiration 73
2.2.5 Effective rainfall 73
2.3 Projections for effect of climate change on the Black Sigatoka and
the banana weevil 75
2.3.1 Black Sigatoka 75
2.3.2 Banana weevil 78
2.4 Recent history of extreme and moderate weather variability in export banana production areas and implications for the future 82
2.5. Projected changes in climate in upper watersheds flowing into
banana production areas 85
2.6. Implications of climate change and weather variability for export
banana production 88
2.6.1 Abiotic conditions: temperature and rainfall 88
2.6.2 Biotic condition: pests and diseases 90
2.6.3 Weather variability 90
2.6.4 Approaches for addressing climate change and weather
variability 91
3. Current grower approaches to banana management under extreme and moderate weather variability 92
3.1 Documenting grower strategies 92
3.2 Implications of results from focus groups for climate change 93
4. Review of disruptive effects of moderate and extreme climate events on
Ecuador’s banana trade 94
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