Page 85 - Ecuador's Banana Sector under Climate Change

chapter 4: assessment of climate change impact on banana production and suitability in ecuador, and general assessment of global banana trends under climate change scenarios
will improve, as indicated by the decline in area not suitable for banana (row 0 in Table 12). Certain zones will increase in area, while other zones will decline. For the four climates of primary importance relating to current banana production, the driest zone will remain approximately the same in land area, while the production areas from 900 mm to more than 2 500 mm annual rainfall will increase by over
1 600 km2.
Using the six points to specifically examine climate change projections permits
a more detailed perspective. These graphs (Figure 18) illustrate the current monthly temperature and rainfall, as well as those for 2030, 2050 and 2070. The highly seasonal rainfall distribution, with over five dry months, will continue
Table 12 Current and future agroclimatic zones (in km2)*
Area (km2)
Agro-zone-ID
Actual
2030
2050
2070
0 4 122.5
111 712.5
112 25
121 1 382.5
122 2.5
3
340 2 805
935 1 000
42.5 27.5
487.5 375
0 5
2 352.5 -
827.5
40
417.5 -
12.5 + 582.5 +
1 045 +
627.5 -
555 + 182.5 +
12.5 -
262.5 -
167.5 -
1 195
692.5 +
7.5 -
35
1 365 - 11 390 +
131
2 207.5
2 860
2 820
2 725
211
212
221
222 232
311
312
321
322 332
412
421
422 432
475 495
777.5 825
1 187.5 777.5
315 437.5 0 25
47.5 30
855 517.5
530 300
1 187.5 1 307.5 530 510
1
520
880
680
535 82.5
22.5
347.5
227.5
180 657.5
12.5
15
231
1 712.5
2 222.5
2 487.5
2 607.5
+
331
1 770
2 145
2 262.5
2 357.5
+
152.5 47.5
92.5 20
3 8
485 2405 1990 230 9 825 1 057.0
431
210
310
362.5
405
+
Source: Authors’ calculations
* Important banana climates are in bold and italics
** The last column identifies, with + (increase) or – (decrease), the change over the 56 year period
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