Page 90 - Ecuador's Banana Sector under Climate Change

ecuador’s banana sector under climate change: an economic and biophysical assessment to promote a sustainable and climate-compatible strategy
These different measures of the effects of average climate change are carried out using crop characteristics for Cavendish, which has a low temperature threshold of 13°C and requires 108 GDD for the emission of a leaf. Calculations for current conditions and monthly temperature and precipitation projections for 2030, 2050 and 2070 were completed for each of the six points selected earlier, which represent the growing conditions for export banana and plantain on the Ecuadorian coast.
The calculations for GDD (Table 14) show that total leaf emission for a 12-month period will increase by 4-6 leaves by 2030, with little increase from 2030 to 2050, even though temperatures will continue to rise in that period. From 2050 to 2070, total annual leaf emission will decline for some sites while increasing for others. If irrigation is optimum, these emission totals can be expected. Using TDU, the effects of water limitation under rainfed production are taken into account. Totals are only about one half the total leaf emission, based on GDD, and there is relatively little change from the present day to 2070. Water will continue to limit the total leaf emission, rather than temperature, under rainfed conditions. Although temperature and rainfall are projected to increase, the increase in water is largely during the rainy months and, therefore, does not compensate the increase in temperature. Total annual leaf emission is projected to be stable.
From the present through to 2070, the increase in average temperature will result in an increase in crop water demand to meet PET. The amount of water to
Table 14
Region
El vergel Esmeraldas La Mana Milagro Pagua Pichilingue
El vergel Esmeraldas La Mana Milagro Pagua Pichilingue
Total annual leaf emission, based on temperature (GDD) and temperature and water (TDU)
Baseline 2030 2050 2070 Total leaf emission based on temperature (GDD)
38 44 40 45 30 34 41 47 40 46 41 46
44 41 46 51 34 42 47 57 47 44 47 42
Total annual leaf emission based on temperature and water (TDU)
20 22 28 30 16 18 16 18 21 22 19 22
23 21 30 34 19 23 18 21 22 21 22 18
Source: Authors’calculations, based on baseline and projections from CCAFS database portal (Ramírez and Jarvis, 2008).
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